The Hard Count

Cam Schlittler's 2025 debut was good — 4-3, 2.96 ERA in 14 starts. Respectable. But the walks were there: 31 free passes in 73 innings, a 3.82 BB/9 that suggested a pitcher still figuring out the zone at the highest level.

That pitcher no longer exists. Through 13 starts in 2026, Schlittler has issued just 13 walks in 76.1 innings — a 1.53 BB/9, a 60% reduction from his rookie year. The WHIP has cratered from 1.22 to 0.86. Opposing hitters are batting .191 against him. The 7-3 record and 1.89 ERA are consequences, not causes — the control is the story.

He draws Ranger Suarez, who came to Boston from Philadelphia and has been solid (3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) but not dominant. The Yankees are 18-12 at home. The Red Sox are 17-14 on the road — far better than their brutal 10-21 mark at Fenway. Worth noting: 14.3 mph wind at Yankee Stadium today, blowing WNW.

The O/U 7.0 is the lowest total on the 15-game board — and it's sitting under a pitcher who has allowed 13 home runs in 64.2 innings. Jacob deGrom's 1.81 HR/9 is the kind of number that should push totals up, not anchor them at the floor. But the market trusts the rest of the line: a 1.01 WHIP, a 6:1 K-to-BB ratio (78 strikeouts against 13 walks), and a .212 opponent average that says when the ball stays in the park, nobody's hitting him.

Cleveland sends Joey Cantillo, who has the opposite problem. The 3.92 ERA looks respectable, but 34 walks in 62 innings (4.94 BB/9) means he's constantly putting runners on. The Guardians are 37-29 and lead the AL Central, but Cantillo's walk rate makes him a high-wire act in any close game. The angle: deGrom's homers come in bursts — two-homer outings followed by shutout starts. Today's board-low total is the market betting this is a quiet day. Globe Life's roof takes weather out of the equation.

The 12.0 total is the highest on the 15-game board — a full 5 runs above the deGrom game in Texas. Kyle Freeland is the reason: 1-6 with an 8.06 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a .322 opponent batting average. Hitters are teeing off. Thirteen home runs in 48 innings means the ball is leaving Coors at a rate of 2.44 per nine.

Milwaukee sends Shane Drohan, who has been sharp in limited action — 2.87 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP through 31.1 innings. The Brewers are 39-23, NL-best behind Atlanta and the Dodgers, and the -186 moneyline is the heaviest favorite on the board. The wind is only 3.6 mph (no carry factor today), but at 93.8°F the ball doesn't need wind. Hot, thin air at altitude does the work. Colorado is 24-41, tied with the Angels for worst record in their respective leagues.