Jacob Misiorowski threw 103.7 mph this season — the fastest pitch by a starting pitcher since Statcast began tracking in 2015. That's not even the most impressive number on his stat line. Try a 0.81 WHIP, a .150 batting average against, and 116 strikeouts that lead all of baseball.
The Brewers are the heaviest favorites on Friday's 15-game board, and the pitching matchup explains why. Misiorowski (7-2, 1.50 ERA) is the Cy Young frontrunner. Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.21 ERA) is a 23-year-old the Phillies refuse to pull from the rotation despite Philadelphia losing 9 of his 12 games. A mid-May slider adjustment briefly showed life — a 2.61 ERA over three starts — but it collapsed June 6 against the White Sox when he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings.
The question isn't whether Misiorowski dominates. It's whether Painter's underlying metrics ever catch up to his surface. His 5.08 FIP says he's bad, not catastrophically bad. His xFIP (4.68) says there's a competent pitcher buried under the wreckage. But "better than 6.21" still isn't competitive when the guy across the diamond is pitching at a generational level. Milwaukee's 21-13 home record is the best in the National League.
Two years ago, the White Sox went 41-121 — the most losses in modern baseball history. Tonight they host the Dodgers at Rate Field with a 22-11 home record that no one outside the South Side saw coming.
The turnaround is structural, not cosmetic. Chicago's wRC+ jumped from 88 to 104, the biggest offensive leap in the majors. Munetaka Murakami was the AL home run leader with 20 bombs before a Grade 2 hamstring strain sent him to the IL on May 29. The team has gone 7-2 without him. That's the tell — this roster isn't built on one bat anymore.
The pitching matchup matters. Roki Sasaki (3-3, 4.03 ERA) had a disastrous first five starts (6.35 ERA) but has completely reinvented himself over his last six outings — a 2.55 ERA with a retooled splitter, touching 100.4 mph. Manager Dave Roberts called him "officially back." Anthony Kay (5-1, 4.40 ERA) has been steady all season on the other side. The 22-11 home record is the real story — it's become one of the toughest draws in the American League.
The Red Sox are 10-21 at Fenway this season — the worst home record in all of baseball and the worst by a Boston team since 1932. They're averaging 3.21 runs per game at home, the lowest mark since Fenway Park opened in 1912. Lower than the Dead Ball Era.
The books don't care. Boston is -136 tonight, and the reason has a name: Sonny Gray. At 7-1 with a 3.20 ERA, Gray is Boston's one-man override of the Fenway curse — the Red Sox are 7-3 in his starts, a winning record that exists nowhere else on this team's home schedule. He's earning every cent of his $31 million salary.
On the other side, Jack Leiter (1-4, 4.61 ERA) showed promise last season (10-10, 3.86 ERA) but has regressed. His 42% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate suggest the contact quality against him is a real problem, not a sequencing fluke. The angle is whether one arm can be the antidote to a ballpark that's forgotten how to score.
No venues above 14 mph tonight. Sorted by wind speed. Heat is the story — three parks above 90°F.
Three questions. Answers below — or click to reveal.
1. 1962 New York Mets (40-120)
2. 1912 — Fenway opened April 20, 1912
3. Corbin Burnes (2021) — 2.43 ERA, 234 K