The Knicks haven't won an NBA championship since Willis Reed limped out of the tunnel in 1973. Tonight, they're one win from ending the longest active title drought in the league — 53 years — and they're doing it on the road against the team with the best regular-season record in basketball.
Context matters here. Three nights ago, New York completed the largest comeback in NBA Finals history, erasing a 29-point deficit in Game 4 on OG Anunoby's tip-in with 1.2 seconds left. That kind of emotional swing historically buries the trailing team. Only one franchise — Cleveland in 2016 — has ever recovered from 3-1 down in the Finals.
But the Spurs were 32-8 at home this season. Victor Wembanyama, despite shooting 9-for-25 in Game 4, put up 24 and 13 and has held a double-digit first-quarter lead in every game this series. San Antonio's problem isn't building leads — it's holding them. The 5.5-point spread reflects the book's belief that Frost Bank Center isn't done yet.
The angle worth watching: ESPN's predictor gives San Antonio only a 57.2% win probability for Game 5, which is remarkably low for a home team favored by 5.5. The market is pricing in serious elimination-game jitters for a Spurs roster with zero collective Finals experience before this series. Wembanyama is 22. Dylan Harper is a rookie. De'Aaron Fox has never been here. Jalen Brunson has — and he had 36 in that comeback.
Two years ago, the White Sox went 41-121 — the most losses by any team since the 1962 Mets. Last year: 60-102. Now they're 37-31 and leading the AL Central, a half-game up on Cleveland, hosting the best team in the National League.
The turnaround isn't a mirage. Since April 18, Chicago is 29-17, tied for the best mark in the American League over that span. They're 23-11 at home — best home record in the AL Central by a wide margin. Munetaka Murakami was third in baseball with 20 home runs before a hamstring strain sidelined him May 29, and Davis Martin has been the stealth Cy Young candidate at 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA.
Today's matchup tests the legitimacy question. Yamamoto brings a 0.92 WHIP to the South Side — the kind of arm that separates real contenders from June pretenders. Sean Burke (3.88 ERA, 10 starts) has been solid but unspectacular. The line reflects heavy respect for Los Angeles despite Chicago's home dominance.
Worth watching: winds projected at 15 mph at Rate Field. In a park that already plays generous, that could push the total higher than the 8.0 suggests, especially if Burke can't locate his slider in the zone early.
Miami has won six straight and gone 9-1 over their last 10 to climb back to .500. The Marlins are now 35-35 — tied with Washington for second in the NL East, 10.5 games behind Atlanta's runaway 45-24 train. On paper, it shouldn't matter. In practice, momentum is a real thing when a lineup suddenly starts hitting.
The shift worth watching is the line. Despite Miami's surge, Pittsburgh is a comfortable home favorite at -131. The book sees a Marlins team whose 12-19 road record tells a different story than the streak. Lake Bachar (0.91 WHIP, 41 K in 36.1 IP) has been a revelation out of the Marlins' pen and gets only his third career start today. Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh's toolsy young arm, has three starts and a 4.73 ERA — raw but electric.
The question: does a six-game winning streak against middling competition translate to PNC Park against a Pirates team that's 19-18 at home? The market says no. The recent form says watch closely.