Carolina can end a 20-year drought tonight. Their only Cup came in 2006, when Cam Ward backstopped a franchise that had only existed in Raleigh for eight years. Now Brandon Bussi is writing a similar story — he's the first goalie in NHL history to make his first two career playoff starts in the Stanley Cup Final and win both.
The total dropping a full point tells you what the sharps think about this game's texture. Carter Hart has allowed 20 goals in five games — the first goalie ever to allow four or more in five consecutive Stanley Cup Final starts. The market is betting on tighter checking, desperation defense from a Vegas team that lost William Karlsson to an arm injury in Game 5.
Vegas won both regular-season meetings, but these aren't the same teams. Carolina was 53-22-7 during the year, an 18-point gap over the Golden Knights. The Hurricanes are 15-3 this postseason. What's worth watching: whether Tortorella adjusts his forecheck to generate more volume — Vegas managed just 25 shots in Game 5.
Two years ago, the White Sox lost 121 games — the most in modern baseball history, surpassing the 1962 Mets. They went 41-121. They had a 21-game losing streak. They were the first team in MLB history to lose at least once to all 29 other teams in a single season.
Today they're 37-32 and sitting in a Wild Card spot. The turnaround is the fourth-best two-year improvement on record. Their home record — 23-12, a .657 clip — is the best in the American League. The offensive gains are real: their wRC+ jumped from 88 (27th in MLB) last year to 104 (tied 8th), the greatest year-over-year leap in baseball. Munetaka Murakami homered four times in his first eight games, the most by any rookie in franchise history.
Erick Fedde is 0-5 with a 4.94 ERA, which is the kind of number that should scream sell. But this team has won despite him, not because of him. The environment matters — 68°F, mostly cloudy, 11 mph wind. Rate Field hasn't been kind to visitors. The question isn't whether the White Sox belong here. It's whether the market has caught up to the fact that they do.
The highest total on any major league board. It's 98°F in the desert with clear skies and 12 mph wind. Tomoyuki Sugano vs Jeffrey Springs at a park with no upper deck and 2,000 feet of elevation. Colorado is 26-45. The A's are 35-35. The baseball will carry.
The reigning NL Cy Young winner has thrown 16 shutout innings in his last two starts — 17 strikeouts, zero walks, four hits allowed. The total has dropped from 7.5 to 7.0, which doesn't sound dramatic until you remember the league average is north of 9. The market is pricing Skenes like an event, not a start.
Career numbers: 21-13, 1.96 ERA, 386 strikeouts in 320.2 innings across 55 starts. Opposing batters are hitting .165 against him this year. Miami is 35-36 and 12-20 on the road. The weather at PNC Park is cooperative — 77°F, 7 mph wind, mostly cloudy. Everything about this setup says low-scoring.
What's worth watching: whether Skenes can extend the shutout streak. He carried a perfect game into the 7th inning earlier this season against Milwaukee.
Three questions about tonight's slate. Answers at the bottom. 3/3 = you're the sharp friend. 0/3 = you're reading the right newsletter.