THE HARD COUNT

Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting .437/.481/.930 with 9 home runs in 17 June games. The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 and on a 3-game win streak. They swept Wednesday's doubleheader at Citi Field — Dansby Swanson drove in 7 runs in Game 1 alone — and are 5-0 against the Mets this season.

The Mets, meanwhile, are in freefall. Five straight losses. Outscored 50-19 during the skid. Juan Soto is out with back tightness. Six errors in Wednesday's nightcap. And Peralta, their nominal stopper tonight, has a 4.76 ERA in his last 7 starts — the reliability gap between the two starters is thinner than the line suggests.

Boyd's 6.00 ERA in 5 starts is the Cubs' vulnerability, but that's a 24-inning sample against a Mets offense that's forgotten how to function. The market has New York as a bare -112 home favorite — home-field advantage is doing all of the lifting here. When a lineup has stopped functioning, the opposing starter's raw numbers stop mattering as much as the dysfunction does.

Cam Schlittler was born in Weymouth, Massachusetts — about 15 miles south of Fenway Park. Tonight's the homecoming. He'll have family in the stands and a 1.71 ERA in his right arm. That ERA is the second-lowest in MLB among qualified starters, trailing only Jacob Misiorowski. His last start: 6 innings, 0 earned runs, 13 strikeouts — a career high — in a shutout of Cincinnati.

The Yankees are rolling at 48-31 despite operating without Aaron Judge (fractured rib, IL) and Giancarlo Stanton (leg, IL). Their 26-16 road record is the best in the American League. New York leads the season series 5-1 — Schlittler's prior start at Fenway on June 7 was a 6-1 win in which he went 5.2 innings and allowed 1 run.

The Red Sox are 32-46 and 12-25 at home, the worst home record in the AL. Connelly Early, a 24-year-old rookie out of UVA, has pitched well overall (3.64 ERA) but has allowed 14 home runs in 81 innings — the long ball is his vulnerability. The market is well aware. The interesting question isn't whether the obvious thing happens — it's whether the line is high enough that the public has already paid for it.

Randy Arozarena is back. The Mariners activated him from the 10-day IL on Monday and he's in today's lineup at PNC Park. Before the IL stint, Arozarena was hitting .287/.373/.442 with 19 stolen bases — Seattle's most dynamic offensive weapon. The Mariners are 41-40, clinging to first in the AL West by 2.5 games over three teams. Getting Arozarena back could be the margin.

Meanwhile, Oracle Park's evening wind is the quiet story on the early slate. Wind starts at 8 mph at first pitch for Athletics-Giants (12:45 PM PT) but ramps to 16 mph by the late innings. Oracle's 0.92 run factor is the lowest in MLB. Jeffrey Springs comes in with a 7.49 ERA over his last 7 starts for Oakland — the A's are on a 4-game losing streak. The total sits at 8.5, but this park in this wind profile tilts toward suppression.

Elsewhere on the transaction wire: Shane Bieber was activated from the 60-day IL by Toronto on Monday — he won't start today (Gausman gets the ball) but the roster reinforcement matters for a Blue Jays team at 39-41. Kansas City placed Maikel Garcia on the IL with a left hand strain, further hollowing out a Royals roster that's 34-47 and sinking.