Vol. 1  ·  No. 072
The Hard Count
Read it before the snap.
6 min read
MLB 15
NFL — OFF
NBA — OFF
NHL — OFF
CFB — OFF
CBB — OFF
The Audible
The Audible MLB Phillies @ Orioles

The Pitch Zack Wheeler Didn't Own Two Years Ago Is Now the Second One He Throws

1:35 PM ET  ·  Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.53) vs. Kyle Bradish (7-9, 3.74)
PHI 58-53  ·  BAL 54-57  ·  83°F, thunderstorms forecast by mid-afternoon
Run Line
PHI −1.5
Total
7.5
opened 8
Moneyline
−142 / +118

Ten and two with a 2.53 ERA is not an accident, and nobody at Camden Yards this afternoon should pretend otherwise. What's worth arguing about is the shape — because the pitcher throwing it is thirty-six years old, missed the first month of the season recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, and is doing it with a pitch he did not have in his hand two springs ago.

Wheeler built the splitter in spring training 2024 with pitching coach Caleb Cotham, specifically to solve left-handed hitters. He'd rejected a changeup. Baseball Savant has him throwing zero of them in 2023. Then 7.3% in 2024, 8.9% in 2025 — and 15.9% this season. It has passed the sinker. A man with a decade of big-league seniority reorganized his arsenal in his mid-thirties, and the new pitch is now the second one he reaches for.

It works: a 48.6% whiff rate, and when hitters do connect they barely dent it — 21.1% hard-hit. Compare that to the four-seamer he still leads with 35.7% of the time, which gets squared up at 47.2%. His most-thrown pitch is the one Baltimore can actually hit, and his best one is fourth in line.

The honest caveat: some of the run prevention is borrowed. An 86.3% strand rate and a .251 BABIP are not things a pitcher owns for six months. His FIP is 3.08, half a run north of the ERA. But the strikeouts are real and they are enormous — 31.1% against a 5.8% walk rate — and his xFIP (2.74) actually sits below his FIP, which says the homers he's given up are the fluke, not the run prevention. Two luck signals pointing opposite directions. The whiffs are the part that isn't luck at all.

48.6%
Splitter Whiff
15.9%
Splitter Usage
(0% in 2023)
31.1%
Strikeout Rate
Baseball Savant · FanGraphs Watch: the split to lefties
The Read
The Read MLB White Sox @ Rays

The First-Place White Sox Bought a Pitcher With a 5.06 ERA. That Was the Point.

1:40 PM ET  ·  Tropicana Field (dome)
Anthony Kay vs. Griffin Jax (6-8, 3.74)
CHW 58-52, 1st in AL Central  ·  TB 65-45
Run Line
TB −1.5
Total
7.5
opened 8
Moneyline
+135 / −163

Twenty-two months ago the Chicago White Sox finished 41-121, the worst record any team has posted in the modern era. This morning they woke up in first place in the American League Central, three games clear of Minnesota and Cleveland, and announced they had traded for a starting pitcher. Not a rental arm on a cheap expiring deal. Luis Castillo, with two-plus years and roughly thirty million dollars left on his contract, all of it absorbed.

The number attached to Castillo is unflattering and everyone can see it. He is 3-9 with a 5.06 ERA and a 4.57 FIP, the worst full season of a ten-year career that includes three All-Star selections. His strikeout rate has collapsed to 19.4%. Seattle, sitting at 54-58, decided that was somebody else's problem.

So read what Chicago actually bought, because it isn't stuff. Castillo has made thirty or more starts in three consecutive seasons. He is the only pitcher on the White Sox staff who has thrown a pitch in a postseason game. A front office that has spent two years accumulating young arms just paid full retail for the one thing young arms cannot manufacture: innings, and a person who has been there in October. The price was their Opening Day closer — Seranthony Domínguez had already lost the ninth inning to a 14.2% walk rate — a catching prospect, and an outfielder who has not appeared in a major-league game all year.

The club underneath the move is genuinely different, and not only in the standings. By Outs Above Average the White Sox now field a top-ten defense (+10) — a team that two summers ago could not catch the ball is converting batted balls at an above-average clip. Tampa Bay, 65-45 and the better team on paper this afternoon, is the sterner test of whether any of it travels.

41-121
White Sox, 2024
5.06
Castillo ERA
Career Worst
+10
CHW Outs
Above Average
MLB Transactions · FanGraphs · Spotrac Watch: what innings cost
Stat of the Day
Stat of the Day
5
Rockies in MLB's Top 13
for Results Over Expected Contact

What Do Baseball's Luckiest Hitters Have in Common? Five of Them Share an Address.

The received wisdom about a hitter whose results outrun his contact quality is that regression is coming for him. Statcast measures how hard and at what angle a ball leaves the bat, converts that into an expected outcome, and when the real outcome is better, the hitter is said to be riding luck.

Except expected stats are calculated against league-wide outcomes. They contain no park adjustment whatsoever. And a fly ball hit at 5,200 feet does not care what that same ball did at sea level.

1.Mickey Moniak  COL+.068
2.Ceddanne Rafaela  BOS+.060
3.Zack Gelof  ATH+.059
6.TJ Rumfield  COL+.048
7.Jake McCarthy  COL+.048
11.Hunter Goodman  COL+.044
13.Cole Carrigg  COL+.044

Of 337 hitters with 150 plate appearances, thirteen sit at the top of the wOBA-over-expected board. Five of them are Colorado Rockies. No other organization has more than one. Moniak's +.068 gap is the largest in the sport.

This is not five men getting lucky in the same clubhouse. It is a measurement that does not know where the game is being played, quietly mismarking an entire roster. Kansas City visits this afternoon, first pitch at 99 degrees — the hottest on the board — into a total that opened at 12.5 and has come down to 12.

Baseball Savant expected statistics · min. 150 PA · Aug 2
The Shift
The Shift MLB Twins @ Mariners

Six Totals Fell. Eight Held. One Went Up.

4:10 PM ET  ·  T-Mobile Park
Taj Bradley (3.65) vs. George Kirby (8-9, 3.98)
MIN 56-56  ·  SEA 54-58  ·  67°F, overcast
Run Line
SEA −1.5
Total
7.5
opened 7
Moneyline
+118 / −142

Yesterday this newsletter noted that Minnesota had made two trades in forty-eight hours, which is not what a team hovering at .500 usually does. Today the board answered. Across all fifteen games, six totals came down from their opener, eight didn't move at all, and exactly one went up — this one, from 7 to 7.5.

That is a strange place for the only upward move on a Sunday to land. T-Mobile Park carries a 0.93 run factor, one of the most reliably run-suppressing environments in the league, and neither starter is the reason. George Kirby's 3.98 ERA actually overstates the damage — his FIP is 3.64. Taj Bradley's 3.65 is honest. Nothing about the pitching matchup argues for more runs, which means the half-run came from somewhere else.

It came from two front offices moving in opposite directions inside the same weekend. Minnesota bought and then stopped: A.J. Minter from the Mets on Friday, Dean Kremer from Baltimore on Saturday, nothing subtracted, Ryan Jeffers still a Twin despite appearing in every rumor column. Seattle went the other way, shipping Luis Castillo to Chicago without retaining a dollar of the contract, and takes the field without J.P. Crawford (wrist, Friday) and Luke Raley (forearm, Saturday).

Two clubs three games apart, with functionally identical records, answered the same question in opposite directions in twenty-four hours — and then had to play each other. There is a pleasing symmetry in the arms: Bradley is the pitcher Minnesota received from Tampa Bay a year ago in exchange for Griffin Jax, who is starting this afternoon's other trade-shaped game.

1 of 15
Totals That
Rose Today
7 → 7.5
The Move
0.93
T-Mobile Park
Run Factor
ESPN BET · MLB Transactions Watch: a park fighting a line
Pre-Snap
NYY @ CHC2:20 PM ET
Colin Rea's home-road split is the quiet reason this line is close: 3.33 at Wrigley, 5.93 everywhere else, and he gets Wrigley. Gerrit Cole answers with a four-seamer hitters are squaring at 45.5% — thrown 46% of the time. Sixteen miles an hour of wind is up again on the North Side. NYY −127 · Total 6.5, lowest on the board
MIL @ LAA3:15 PM ET
The Angels have lost five straight and draw Jacob Misiorowski on a 69-41 Milwaukee team that keeps adding — Bo Naylor and Codi Heuer arrived from Cleveland yesterday. Biggest price on the board. MIL −232 · Total 7.5, opened 8
KC @ COL3:10 PM ET
Kyle Freeland owns a 7.34 ERA against a 4.92 FIP and a 58.6% strand rate — abnormally low, and the largest gap between results and process of any starter working today. The stuff has not been the problem; the sequencing has. COL −125 · Total 12.0, opened 12.5 · 99°F
STL @ TOR1:37 PM ET
Max Scherzer, 42, is 1-4 with a 9.49 ERA across seven starts broken up by two injured-list stints, and Toronto — 52-59 and last in the East — is still handing him the ball. St. Louis counters with a pair of top-11 gloves up the middle. Roof likely closed · rain in Toronto
ARI @ CLE1:40 PM ET
Merrill Kelly has a 1.95 ERA over his last five starts against a 4.86 season mark, and he's better away from Phoenix — 3.92 on the road, 6.33 at home. Arizona brings the second-best defense in baseball by Outs Above Average (+32). Cleveland traded Bo Naylor yesterday and stayed put otherwise
TEX @ HOU2:10 PM ET
Houston has won five in a row and Texas just got Corey Seager back off the injured list. Kumar Rocker's day-game ERA (2.41) is half his night mark, and this is a day game with the roof presumably shut against 92 degrees. HOU −136 · Total 8.5
BOS @ LAD7:20 PM ET
The only night game on the board is also the best-defended: Los Angeles (+56 DRS) and Boston (+50) are two of the four best gloves in the sport, and Emmet Sheehan and Jake Bennett are the arms in front of them. LAD −164 · Total 8.5, opened 9
Weather Watch
☀️Coors Field
Sunny · hottest first pitch on the board
99°F · 7 mph WSW
☀️Sutter Health Park
Clear · Sacramento bakes again
99°F · 4 mph WNW
⛈️Camden Yards
Cloudy at first pitch, thunderstorms forecast by mid-afternoon
83°F · 10 mph
🌬️Wrigley Field
Mostly cloudy · wind up again off the lake
74°F · 16 mph
🌤️Citi Field
Mostly clear · breeziest in the East
84°F · 14 mph SSE
☀️Dodger Stadium
Clear · only night game on the slate
88°F · 8 mph WSW
☀️Angel Stadium
Clear · earliest local first pitch
87°F · 6 mph SW
Truist Park
Partly cloudy
82°F · 9 mph SW
🌤️Petco Park
Mostly clear
79°F · 7 mph SW
☁️Progressive Field
Overcast
78°F · 8 mph SSW
🌦️Great American Ball Park
Light rain, near-calm air
76°F · 4 mph
☁️T-Mobile Park
Overcast · coolest on the board
67°F · 8 mph NW
🏟️Rogers Centre
Rain outside — roof, controlled
71°F outside
🏟️Daikin Park
92°F outside — roof, controlled
Roof · 4 mph N
🏟️Tropicana Field
Dome — controlled
Dome
Two-Minute Drill

Three questions on clubs playing today. Tap to reveal, or scroll to the very bottom for the answer key.

Question 01 · Orioles
On August 24, 1983, with utility infielder Lenn Sakata pressed into emergency duty behind the plate, which Baltimore reliever became the only pitcher in major-league history to pick off three baserunners in a single inning?
Tippy Martinez
Question 02 · Padres
On August 1, 1972, which San Diego first baseman hit five home runs and drove in 13 across a doubleheader in Atlanta — matching a Stan Musial performance he had watched from the stands as a boy?
Nate Colbert
Question 03 · Marlins
Miami is the only franchise in major-league history to have won multiple World Series titles while never once winning what?
A division title — they have never won the NL East
3/3 = you're the sharp friend. 0/3 = you're reading the right newsletter.