The Pitch Zack Wheeler Didn't Own Two Years Ago Is Now the Second One He Throws
Ten and two with a 2.53 ERA is not an accident, and nobody at Camden Yards this afternoon should pretend otherwise. What's worth arguing about is the shape — because the pitcher throwing it is thirty-six years old, missed the first month of the season recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, and is doing it with a pitch he did not have in his hand two springs ago.
Wheeler built the splitter in spring training 2024 with pitching coach Caleb Cotham, specifically to solve left-handed hitters. He'd rejected a changeup. Baseball Savant has him throwing zero of them in 2023. Then 7.3% in 2024, 8.9% in 2025 — and 15.9% this season. It has passed the sinker. A man with a decade of big-league seniority reorganized his arsenal in his mid-thirties, and the new pitch is now the second one he reaches for.
It works: a 48.6% whiff rate, and when hitters do connect they barely dent it — 21.1% hard-hit. Compare that to the four-seamer he still leads with 35.7% of the time, which gets squared up at 47.2%. His most-thrown pitch is the one Baltimore can actually hit, and his best one is fourth in line.
The honest caveat: some of the run prevention is borrowed. An 86.3% strand rate and a .251 BABIP are not things a pitcher owns for six months. His FIP is 3.08, half a run north of the ERA. But the strikeouts are real and they are enormous — 31.1% against a 5.8% walk rate — and his xFIP (2.74) actually sits below his FIP, which says the homers he's given up are the fluke, not the run prevention. Two luck signals pointing opposite directions. The whiffs are the part that isn't luck at all.
(0% in 2023)