France
−170
The last time these two met, it was December 14, 2022, a World Cup semifinal, and France won 2–0 on its way to the final. Morocco went home as the first African and Arab nation ever to reach the last four — challengers who'd overachieved. They don't arrive as challengers anymore.
The Atlas Lions come in as reigning African champions, ranked sixth in the world, riding a 34-match unbeaten run, and having already knocked the Netherlands out of this tournament on penalties before dismantling Canada 3–0. This is a side chasing back-to-back World Cup semifinals for the first time in its history. The complication: playmaker Ismael Saibari is injured and out, thinning a midfield that will need every body against the French press.
Because France, so far, has been the most complete team in North America — five wins from five, 14 goals scored, two conceded, with Kylian Mbappé leading the Golden Boot race (seven goals) and Dembélé, Olise and Barcola behind him. The question the number hangs on: France thrashed everyone until a stubborn 1–0 over Paraguay in the last 16 — the first time a disciplined, deep-sitting block slowed them down. Morocco defends exactly like that, only better. Watch whether the game becomes the track meet France wants or the low-block chess match Morocco keeps winning.
The bracket has already eaten its giants. Norway knocked out Brazil 2–1 — the single loudest result of the knockouts. Belgium thumped the co-host United States 4–1. And Spain ended Portugal 1–0, closing the book on Cristiano Ronaldo's World Cup career. Argentina rolled through Egypt; Switzerland and Egypt both survived shootouts to get this far. Eight teams left, and only France has looked untouchable.
On the women's side, the final is half-written: Karolína Muchová upset Coco Gauff in the semifinals and is into Saturday's championship match. Her opponent is being decided as we publish — Linda Nosková vs. Marta Kostyuk, two first-time major finalists-in-waiting, with the winner reaching the biggest match of her life.
The men kept the fireworks for Friday. One semifinal is the one the whole tournament wanted: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner, the old king against the world No. 1. The other is a fairy tale — Alexander Zverev vs. Arthur Fery, the British wildcard who wasn't supposed to be within a week of a Wimbledon semifinal and is here anyway. The men's final is Sunday.
The team France beat in the 2022 semifinal has not lost a competitive match in a very long time. Morocco carries a 34-game unbeaten streak, an AFCON title, and a No. 6 world ranking into Foxborough. The +500 on the moneyline treats them like an underdog; the last three years treat them like a wagon. That gap is the whole story of the afternoon.
France have put up 14 goals in five matches, yet the total sits at just 2.5 and they're only a −170 favorite — modest for a team that's looked this dominant. The market is quietly pricing in the thing France just experienced against Paraguay: Morocco's block is the kind of wall that turns a 3–0 machine into a 1–0 grind. The draw at +280 is doing a lot of talking. What's worth watching isn't the winner — it's whether this becomes the rare France game that stays under.