Jacob Misiorowski's Fastball Isn't a Pitch Tonight. It's a Verdict.

The Audible

The AudibleMLBDodger Stadium

Jacob Misiorowski's Fastball Isn't a Pitch Tonight. It's a Verdict.

7:15 PM ET · Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Milwaukee (75-48) at Los Angeles (74-49)
RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs. LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD)

MoneylineMIL −123DraftKings

Total7.5unmoved

RunlineMIL −1.5+130

Dodger Stadium has the best record in the National League tonight, and Los Angeles is still the home underdog. That's not a lineup trick. It's a 24-year-old with the fastest fastball in the sport standing 60 feet, 6 inches away.

Jacob Misiorowski's average four-seamer sits at 100.6 mph, and he throws it 64% of the time — hitters know it's coming and still whiff on it 42.5% of the time they swing. His 1.76 ERA isn't outrunning anything either: Statcast's contact model puts his xERA at 1.93, practically the same number, built on a 3.5% barrel rate that ranks among the sport's best contact-suppression marks. An 84.3% ground-ball rate on the pitches hitters do put in play rounds out a profile with no obvious crack in it.

Los Angeles isn't just facing the stuff cold, either. Both of the Dodgers' top late-inning options are compromised: Edwin Díaz has thrown in back-to-back games (24 and 26 pitches), and Tanner Scott has too (5 and 19). Dodger Stadium's marine air keeps the ballpark closer to run-neutral than its short lines suggest (0.98 run factor), which mostly matters if the game is still level in the seventh — and if it gets there, the Dodgers' bullpen is the shakier version of itself tonight. Milwaukee doesn't need much offense to win this one. It needs innings from Misiorowski, and lately that's been the easy part.

1.76

Misiorowski ERA (1.93 xERA)

100.6

Avg fastball, mph

42.5%

Fastball whiff rate

Sources: Baseball Savant · MLB Stats API · Stat Mining — Watch: whether L.A.'s taxed bullpen ever has to answer a late lead

The Read

The ReadMLBDaikin Park

Yordan Alvarez's Batting Average Says He's Been Ordinary. His Contact Quality Says Otherwise.

7:10 PM ET · Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Seattle (57-66) at Houston (63-60)
RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski (HOU)

MoneylineHOU −119DraftKings

Total8.5unmoved

RunlineHOU −1.5+162

A .324 average and a .628 slugging percentage already read as a good year. Statcast's contact model says Yordan Alvarez should be doing more damage than that — a lot more.

His expected slugging sits at .688, sixty points ahead of his actual mark, and his wOBA (.441) trails his xwOBA (.465) by 24 points — a gap built on a 17.9% barrel rate and a 53.7% hard-hit rate, both elite. The sweet-spot rate (41.5%) says the swing decisions are sound too. Nothing about the underlying contact explains why the results haven't fully caught up.

Seattle's Emerson Hancock brings his own gap to the mound — a 3.35 ERA that Statcast's model doesn't buy, pegging his xERA at 4.06, three-quarters of a run higher. And if Houston needs length from its bullpen late, Seattle's is the shakier unit tonight: closer Andrés Muñoz has worked both of the Mariners' last two games, and two more relievers (Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier) are in the same spot. Daikin Park's Crawford Boxes make left field the cheapest power alley in the sport (1.04 HR factor). If the contact quality is going to turn into results, a short porch and a taxed visiting bullpen are as good a setup as Alvarez will get.

.441

Alvarez wOBA (.465 xwOBA)

17.9%

Barrel rate

53.7%

Hard-hit rate

Sources: Baseball Savant · MLB Stats API · Stat Mining — Watch: whether Alvarez finally turns loud contact into a loud line tonight

Stat of the Day

+8.5

Mookie Betts · Los Angeles shortstop · Def, elite for the position

Mookie Betts Was Supposed to Be an Outfielder Forever. Tonight His Glove Argues Otherwise.

Mookie Betts won six Gold Gloves in right field before the Dodgers, short a shortstop, asked him to learn the position in his 30s — a move that read at the time like organizational optimism more than an actual plan. 728 innings in, FanGraphs' all-in-one defensive metric has him at +8.5 Def at short, an elite mark at the position by any measure.

The range is the real story — five errors are the visible blemish on the ledger, the kind of number a highlight reel doesn't show. What the routine plays and the tough ones both say, added up over a full season's workload at a position he didn't grow up playing, is that the bet paid off.

It's a convenient night for it to matter: Milwaukee's lineup is what's standing between Los Angeles and a series win, and every ball Betts gets to is one fewer Jacob Misiorowski has to strike out himself. The Dodgers didn't just solve a roster problem when they moved him. They may have found one of their better gloves in the process.

Sources: FanGraphs · MLB Stats API — Watch: how many tough chances come Betts's way behind a fly-ball-averse Misiorowski start

The Shift

The ShiftMLBGreat American Ball Park

5–4. The Split Among Nine Sportsbooks on Who's Actually Favored in Cincinnati Tonight.

Nine sportsbooks are pricing tonight's Miami-Cincinnati game, and the run line doesn't just disagree on the number — it disagrees on the favorite. Five books list Miami at −1.5, making the Marlins the favorite. Four list Cincinnati at −1.5 instead. Same game, same first pitch, no shared opinion of which team is actually better tonight.

Both starters carry a small performance gap that helps explain the market's confusion: Ryan Gusto's 4.78 ERA is actually a touch unlucky (4.32 xERA), while Brady Singer's 4.66 ERA is running slightly hotter than his components suggest it should (5.01 xERA). Neither gap is large enough to settle an argument on its own — which is close to the point. Nobody on this board has separated themselves.

Great American Ball Park doesn't help settle anything either — a top-3 home run park with a short right field (1.12 HR factor), the kind of building where a close game can flip on one swing rather than a string of them. Cincinnati's bullpen is beat up on top of it: Brock Burke is unavailable after back-to-back outings, and Sam Moll, Julián García, and Emilio Pagán are all flagged after heavy recent use. In a park built for chaos, with both pens a little thin, it tracks that the board can't agree on who wins.

5–4

Book split on the favorite

9

Books surveyed

1.12

GABP HR factor

Sources: The Odds API · FanGraphs · editorial/park_factors.json — Watch: whether either bullpen's fatigue decides a close one late

Pre-Snap

CWS @ DET1:10 PM ET

Anthony Kay carries a 1.46 ERA in August into Comerica Park, and Detroit's moneyline price eased from −164 to −136 since the morning open.Total 7.5 (opened 8) · DET −136

STL @ CHC2:20 PM ET

Michael McGreevy takes a 6.29 ERA over his last five starts into Wrigley Field, against a Cubs defense that's given opposing pitchers little margin for error all season.Total 9 (unmoved) · CHC −171

NYY @ TOR3:07 PM ET

New York's moneyline price firmed from −171 to −165 since the morning open as Cam Schlittler faces a Toronto lineup seeing Braydon Fisher for one of his first big-league starts.Total 7.5 (unmoved) · NYY −165

COL @ SF4:05 PM ET

Logan Webb takes a 0.64 August ERA into Oracle Park against Michael Lorenzen, who's actually been the better pitcher away from Coors this year.Total 7.5 (opened 8) · SF −170

WSH @ NYM4:10 PM ET

Brad Lord takes a 1.29 road ERA into Citi Field against Sean Manaea, with the total sliding half a run since the morning open.Total 8 (opened 8.5) · NYM −136

BAL @ TB6:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay's total slid half a run since the morning open, with Ian Seymour facing a Baltimore lineup still finding its footing under .500.Total 7.5 (opened 8) · TB −141

SD @ CLE7:10 PM ET

San Diego takes a six-game winning streak into Progressive Field, and the Padres' moneyline price has drifted from +100 to +111 since the morning open.Total 8.5 (opened 8) · CLE −119

PHI @ MIN7:10 PM ET

Jesús Luzardo carries a 1.20 ERA in August into Target Field against Connor Prielipp, with the total holding flat at 8 all day.Total 8 (unmoved) · PHI −141

ARI @ ATL7:15 PM ET

Eduardo Rodriguez's 2.70 ERA is nearly two runs better than his 4.78 xERA says it should be, and Atlanta's Grant Holmes is running a similar gap of his own (3.47 ERA vs. 4.75 xERA) — the market's already reacting, with Atlanta's moneyline price sliding from −175 to −127 since the morning open.⚡ Sharp SignalTotal 9 (opened 8.5) · ATL −127

BOS @ PIT7:15 PM ET

Pittsburgh's total slid half a run since the morning open as Jared Jones faces a Red Sox lineup still favored on the road.Total 7.5 (opened 8) · BOS −124

KC @ LAA9:38 PM ET

Los Angeles's moneyline price firmed from −149 to −157 since the morning open, even as the total slid half a run.Total 8 (opened 8.5) · LAA −157

TEX @ ATH9:40 PM ET

MacKenzie Gore takes a 0.79 August ERA into Sutter Health Park, where the board-high 9.5 total hasn't moved a tick all day.Total 9.5 (unmoved) · TEX −135

Weather Watch

Nothing clears the 3/7 weather-game threshold anywhere tonight — Dodger Stadium runs the stiffest breeze on the board, well shy of the kicking/deep-fly threshold. Retractable-roof and dome parks (Toronto, Houston, Milwaukee, Seattle, Miami, Arizona, Texas, Tampa Bay) excluded — expect all closed.

DODGER STADIUM · MIL@LAD

Clear · 78°F

10.8 mph WSW · WIS 1/7

ORACLE PARK · COL@SF

Mostly Clear · 67°F

8.8 mph W · WIS 1/7

COMERICA PARK · CWS@DET

Partly Cloudy · 82°F

8.7 mph S · WIS 1/7

CITI FIELD · WSH@NYM

Clear · 83°F

7.7 mph N · WIS 0/7

GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK · MIA@CIN

Overcast · 91°F

6.9 mph SSW · WIS 0/7

TRUIST PARK · ARI@ATL

Clear · 91°F

5.8 mph WNW · WIS 0/7

WRIGLEY FIELD · STL@CHC

Overcast · 74°F

5.4 mph E · WIS 0/7

TARGET FIELD · PHI@MIN

Overcast · 83°F

5.0 mph S · WIS 0/7

PROGRESSIVE FIELD · SD@CLE

Overcast · 80°F

4.9 mph SE · WIS 0/7

SUTTER HEALTH PARK · TEX@ATH

Clear · 65°F

4.1 mph SSW · WIS 0/7

ANGEL STADIUM · KC@LAA

Overcast · 69°F

3.5 mph NW · WIS 0/7

PNC PARK · BOS@PIT

Overcast · 79°F

0.6 mph SE · calmest tonight · WIS 0/7

Two-Minute Drill

Three questions. Answers at the bottom.

01

Tonight's Audible sends Milwaukee to Dodger Stadium. What year was the Brewers' only World Series appearance?

1982 — a seven-game loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.

02

Tonight's Read is a Seattle-Houston game. What year did the Astros win their most recent World Series title?

2022 — a six-game win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

03

Tonight's Stat of the Day features a Dodgers shortstop. How many World Series titles have the Los Angeles/Brooklyn Dodgers won?

9 — most recently in 2025.

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