The Dodgers' Bullpen Has One Fresh Arm Left. Tonight It Faces the Highest-Scoring Park in the Sport.

The Audible

The AudibleMLBCoors Field

The Dodgers' Bullpen Has One Fresh Arm Left. Tonight It Faces the Highest-Scoring Park in the Sport.

8:40 PM ET · Coors Field, Denver, CO
Los Angeles Dodgers (76-51) at Colorado (50-76)
RHP Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (COL)

MoneylineLAD −191open −192

Total11.5unchanged

RunlineCOL +1.5−131 LAD

The Dodgers' bullpen looked completely different a week ago. Edwin Díaz landed back on the injured list Tuesday with neck inflammation — his second IL stint of the season — after blowing three saves in his last six appearances and allowing nine runs in that stretch. He's not walking into tonight's game at Coors Field. Neither, in any real sense, is most of the pen behind him.

Of the seven relievers who've thrown for Los Angeles in the last three days, three are flagged likely unavailable (Jack Dreyer, Evan Phillips, Edgardo Henriquez), two more are risky off recent workload (Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia), and Díaz is now off the roster entirely. Kyle Hurt, who threw 30 pitches Sunday, is the only clearly fresh arm in the group. That's the bullpen the Dodgers are bringing to the one park in baseball built to punish exactly that kind of night.

Coors Field carries a 1.24 run factor, the highest in MLB by a wide margin, and Kyle Freeland's own season has been snakebit in the same direction — a 6.27 ERA against a 4.65 FIP, a 1.62-run gap that FanGraphs flags among the widest for any qualified starter, with a 61.7% strand rate well below league average. The board's total already sits at 11.5, the highest number anywhere on tonight's slate. The bullpen news didn't move it. That doesn't mean it won't matter.

Díaz blown saves, last 6 outings

6/7

LAD relievers unavailable, risky, or off the roster

1.24

Coors Field run factor, MLB's highest

Sources: MLB Stats API · FanGraphs · Stat Mining · ESPN — Watch: how many relievers Los Angeles actually needs tonight, and who's left when they do

The Read

The ReadMLBPNC Park

Oneil Cruz Missed 58 Games With a Broken Hand. Pittsburgh's Lineup Looks Like Itself Again.

12:35 PM ET · PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Detroit Tigers (61-65) at Pittsburgh (62-66)
RHP Jackson Jobe (DET) vs. RHP Paul Skenes (PIT)

MoneylinePIT −154open −139

Total8.0unchanged

RunlinePIT −1.5−163 DET

Oneil Cruz is back in Pittsburgh's lineup for the first time since June 7 — 58 games lost to two non-displaced fractures in his left hand, an injury that ended a stretch where the 27-year-old was hitting .264 with 14 home runs over 64 games, a genuine career-year pace nobody got to talk about because he barely played long enough to notice.

The underlying numbers from that season sample haven't gone anywhere. Cruz's average exit velocity sits at 96.1 mph, his barrel rate at 17.0%, his hard-hit rate at 59.5% — top-of-the-league marks across the board — while his .361 wOBA and .361 xwOBA match almost to the point, meaning Statcast isn't flagging any hidden regression waiting to happen. FanGraphs has him at a 126 wRC+ with 21 stolen bases, the kind of five-tool line that makes a 35% strikeout rate a footnote rather than the headline.

Paul Skenes takes the mound for the home team off a 3.88 ERA and a 30.0% strikeout rate, the best swing-and-miss number of any starter on tonight's board, while Detroit's Jackson Jobe — carrying a 6.23 ERA — draws the tougher assignment against a lineup that just got its most dangerous bat back. Pittsburgh's record hasn't cracked .500 with Cruz out of the lineup for two months. Tonight is the first real test of whether that changes.

Games Cruz missed with a fractured hand

17.0%

Cruz barrel rate this season

126

Cruz wRC+ (FanGraphs)

Sources: MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · FanGraphs — Watch: whether Pittsburgh's lineup plays differently with him back in the middle of it

Stat of the Day

+23

Pete Crow-Armstrong · Chicago center fielder · Outs Above Average (Baseball Savant)

Chicago Just Lost Its Shortstop to a 10-Day IL. Its Center Fielder Has the Best Glove in the Sport.

Dansby Swanson landed on the 10-day injured list Monday with a left oblique strain, knocking Chicago's best infield defender out of the lineup right as the Cubs try to hold their spot as one of baseball's better defensive teams. The middle infield will feel it. The outfield behind it won't miss a step.

Pete Crow-Armstrong shares the best mark in baseball in Outs Above Average this season at +23, with +20 runs prevented — tied only with Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. for the top spot leaguewide, and the only outfielder anywhere near it. Whatever ground Chicago loses at shortstop over the next 10 days, it's still fielding a center fielder with more range than all but one player at any position in the sport.

Clay Holmes takes the ball for the Cubs off a 2.56 ERA at home, opposite Sean Newcomb for a White Sox club still five games clear of .500. Chicago is a modest home favorite at −137. Swanson's absence is a real loss. It just isn't the biggest defensive story on the field at Wrigley today.

Sources: Baseball Savant · MLB Stats API — Watch: whether the Cubs' infield defense dips without Swanson, or the outfield keeps covering for it

The Shift

The ShiftMLBTropicana Field

8.33. Max Scherzer's Home ERA This Season. Tonight He Isn't Home.

Max Scherzer takes a 6.58 ERA into tonight's start at Tropicana Field, and on the surface that reads like a future Hall of Famer well into his decline. The home/road split complicates the read: an 8.33 ERA at Rogers Centre against a 3.21 mark away from it, a gap that's held up long enough across the season to be more than noise — and tonight Toronto is the visitor.

The season-long number is also lying by more than the split alone suggests. Scherzer's xERA sits at 4.69 — 1.89 runs better than his actual ERA, one of the widest gaps of any starter pulled for this issue — with a 9.8% barrel rate and 34.8% hard-hit rate allowed that look nothing like a pitcher carrying a 6-plus ERA. Something between bad luck and a defense that isn't behind him is inflating the topline number, and tonight he gets his best shot at closing the gap on both counts.

Drew Rasmussen takes the ball for Tampa Bay off a 2.78 ERA and one of the tidier command profiles in the league — 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings against just 1.6 walks — for a Rays club that owns the best record of any team featured in tonight's issue at 75-50. Tampa Bay opened −221 favorites and now sits at −204, the board still lopsided, just less lopsided than it was a few days ago; the total came in from 8.0 to 7.5. Scherzer's ERA says he's cooked. His road splits and his xERA both say tonight is the wrong night to assume that.

6.58

Scherzer season ERA

4.69

Scherzer xERA (1.89-run gap)

2.78

Rasmussen ERA (TB)

Sources: Baseball Savant · FanGraphs · ESPN — Watch: whether tonight's start looks like his road ERA or his home one

Pre-Snap

MIA @ PHI6:05 PM ET

The market flipped hard on this one — Miami opened as a modest −102 favorite and closed at +114, a 216-cent swing that hands Philadelphia the clear-favorite role by first pitch.PHI −123 · total 8.5⚡ SHARP MOVE

ATL @ MIN1:40 PM ET

Atlanta opened as a −141 road favorite and now sits at pick'em territory, −104, with Minnesota's own price cratering from +117 to −104 right alongside it — as complete a market convergence as tonight's board offers.ATL −104 · total 8.5

NYY @ BAL6:35 PM ET

New York activated Carlos Rodón off the 15-day IL this week, a day after placing Max Fried on it (left elbow bone bruise); Baltimore counters with Chris Bassitt, a different pitcher at home — a 3.09 ERA at Camden Yards against 7.28 on the road.NYY −118 · total 9.0

AZ @ BOS4:10 PM ET

Brandon Pfaadt hasn't allowed a run in August — a 0.00 ERA across the month, down from a 3.11 mark for the season — and tonight he draws a Boston lineup that owns the better record.BOS −158 · total 8.0

SEA @ MIL7:40 PM ET

Dustin May has been a different pitcher this month — a 2.08 ERA in August against a 4.13 season mark — as Milwaukee, owner of the best record in baseball at 78-48, hosts Seattle.MIL −118 · total 7.0

STL @ CIN6:40 PM ET

Chase Burns' slider is missing bats at a 51.4% clip, the sharpest single-pitch swing-and-miss weapon on tonight's board, as Cincinnati's righthander takes a 2.47 ERA into a matchup with St. Louis.CIN −148 · total 8.5

WSH @ TEX8:05 PM ET

Kumar Rocker's ERA has jumped to 8.10 in August, up from a 4.50 season mark, the same week Texas activated catcher Danny Jansen off the 60-day injured list.TEX −130 · total 7.5

Weather Watch

A calm slate — nothing clears the 3/7 weather-game threshold anywhere tonight; Fenway carries the stiffest breeze on the board at 12 mph. Tropicana Field (TOR@TB), Globe Life Field (WSH@TEX), Daikin Park (LAA@HOU), and American Family Field (SEA@MIL) excluded as closed domes/retractable roofs in August heat.

FENWAY PARK · AZ@BOS

Clear · 88°F

12.4 mph WSW · WIS 1/7

PNC PARK · DET@PIT

Overcast · 76°F

9.5 mph SW · WIS 1/7

CITI FIELD · SD@NYM

Clear · 87°F

9.2 mph SW · WIS 1/7

COORS FIELD · LAD@COL

Clear · 90°F

8.6 mph ENE · WIS 1/7

CITIZENS BANK PARK · MIA@PHI

Clear · 86°F

7.8 mph W · WIS 0/7

ORIOLE PARK AT CAMDEN YARDS · NYY@BAL

Clear · 88°F

6.5 mph W · WIS 0/7

GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK · STL@CIN

Overcast · 87°F

5.2 mph SSW · WIS 0/7

PROGRESSIVE FIELD · SF@CLE

Mostly Clear · 79°F

5.1 mph NW · WIS 0/7

WRIGLEY FIELD · CWS@CHC

Overcast · 73°F

4.3 mph NE · WIS 0/7

KAUFFMAN STADIUM · ATH@KC

Clear · 85°F

4.1 mph N · WIS 0/7

TARGET FIELD · ATL@MIN

Clear · 75°F

2.3 mph WNW · calmest today · WIS 0/7

Two-Minute Drill

Three questions. Answers at the bottom.

Tonight's Audible sends the Dodgers to Coors Field. In what year did the Rockies introduce the humidor that tamed the ballpark's offense?

2002 — home runs at Coors dropped from 268 in 2001 to 185 by 2007.

Tonight's Read features Oneil Cruz and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Which team beat Pittsburgh in the very first modern World Series, back in 1903?

The Boston Americans — 5 games to 3, in a best-of-nine series.

Tonight's Shift sends Max Scherzer to Tampa Bay. Which team did the expansion Devil Rays play in their very first game, back in 1998?

The Detroit Tigers — a 45,369-fan crowd at Tropicana Field on March 31, 1998.

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