THE HARD COUNT

Ronald Acuña Jr.'s Numbers Say He's Still Cold. Atlanta's Seven-Game Winning Streak Says It Doesn't Matter.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is squaring up the ball harder than his batting line admits. His .335 wOBA trails a .364 xwOBA by 29 points — the gap Statcast reserves for hitters whose results haven't caught up to their contact — and his 12.9% barrel rate sits in the sport's upper tier. None of it has turned into the kind of week that matches Atlanta's record.

The Braves have won seven straight and sit alone in first place in the NL East, five games clear of Philadelphia at 82-55 — the best record in the division. San Francisco arrives 56-81, tied for the majors' worst mark. Bryce Elder takes the ball for Atlanta with a plain 3.95 ERA and no real luck gap attached to it, exactly the low-drama profile a streaking lineup behind him can live with.

Acuña's glove is quietly working against the case, too — a -6 Outs Above Average in right field gives some of the bat's value back — and Statcast has his expected slugging 63 points ahead of his actual mark (.474 xSLG vs. .411 SLG). Atlanta's bullpen has some mileage on it as well: closer Raisel Iglesias has pitched in two of the last three days, 16 pitches Friday and 12 more Sunday. A team playing this well doesn't need its best hitter running hot yet — but if Acuña ever catches up to his own contact quality, this lineup gets a lot scarier.

Boston Got Two Everyday Bats Back Today. Seattle's Starter Is Better Than His ERA Admits.

Boston got the two bats back today that could decide whether the rest of this season means anything. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story were both activated off the 60-day injured list Sunday, back in a lineup that's spent August trying to hold off a fade in the standings.

Anthony's actual numbers are still modest — a .239 average, .336 slugging — but the underlying contact says more is coming: a 47.5% hard-hit rate, a 41.3% sweet-spot rate, and a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, all comfortably plus. Story's return is more about the lineup card than the stat sheet after a long injury layoff, but it's a real everyday bat back in the order. Boston sits 74-63, third in the AL East and 8.5 games back of Tampa Bay, with not much runway left to work with.

George Kirby's own line reads worse than his stuff: a 4.02 ERA against a 3.63 FIP, a 0.40-run gap that leans toward tough luck rather than bad pitching, with both his curveball and changeup grading as plus pitches by run value. Boston's bullpen isn't fully rested either — Jovani Morán has pitched in two of the last three days, including 40 pitches Sunday, and Greg Weissert has worked twice in the same stretch. Two reinforcements in the lineup, a pitcher across from them who's earned better results than he's gotten — Fenway gets an interesting test case either way tonight.

Peter Lambert's ERA Has Nearly Doubled This August, and Houston's Whole Bullpen Door Is Taxed Behind Him.

Houston's bullpen door has already swung open more than usual this week, and Monday night doesn't look like the one it gets a rest. Bryan Abreu, Josh Hader, and AJ Blubaugh have all pitched in the last three days — closer Josh Hader threw 18 pitches Friday and 13 more Sunday, the kind of workload that gets watched closely in the season's final month.

The reason the pen might matter earlier than usual: Peter Lambert's ERA has nearly doubled from his season mark over the last calendar month, up to 6.12 in August against a 3.66 full-season number — the same 6.12 ERA over his last five starts. His FIP (3.86) and xFIP (4.40) both suggest a pitcher still missing bats, 8.8 K/9 on the season, but one who's walking more hitters (3.6 BB/9) and getting hurt by the long ball (0.91 HR/9).

Both teams technically lead their own divisions tonight — Houston by two games over Texas in the AL West, Chicago by 3.5 over Cleveland in the AL Central — despite records that would be well out of a playoff spot in a stronger division. The board makes Houston a modest favorite regardless, -131 across books with the total sitting at 8.4. A tiring bullpen behind a struggling starter is the kind of combination that turns a modest total into a bigger one, if the White Sox get to Lambert early.

Carlos Alcaraz Opens His US Open as a Combined -511 Favorite Across Eight Books.

Carlos Alcaraz opens his US Open campaign against Roman Safiullin, and the board isn't treating it as a contest — Alcaraz sits at -511 across eight books, with Safiullin's best price reaching only +410 elsewhere. First serve is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium, the featured day-session match on the men's side.

It's one of two heavy men's favorites on today's board — Andrey Rublev is an even bigger number over Otto Virtanen (-612) — while the women's side produced the morning's most notable result: Sofia Kenin eliminated 46-year-old Venus Williams in straight sets overnight, 6-2, 7-6(6). Round 1 at a major is usually about survival, and today's board mostly agrees — Williams just found that out first.