Eighty-one and eighty-one. Houston is the only team in the 12-club playoff field that didn't finish above .500, and it is hosting anyway: the Astros won the AL West by a game over Texas (80-82), and a division title carries the home date. Chicago, the visitor, won 84 games, three more.
The underlying numbers point the same direction. The White Sox finished +56 in run differential to Houston's -32, and their road record (36-45) is nearly a mirror of Houston's home record (39-42). Neither side arrives as a juggernaut; one arrives as a division champion.
Then there's the mound. Houston's listed probable, AJ Blubaugh, has made 64 appearances and zero starts this season (96 innings, 3.66 ERA). Chicago's, Hagen Smith, has one start in 18 appearances (28 innings, 1.29 ERA). A Game 1 with two relievers listed as starters is set up to run through the bullpens early.
Off the field, the manager's future rides along: owner Jim Crane said Monday the playoff berth is "something to consider" in deciding on Joe Espada, whose contract expires after the season. The market has cooled on Houston a little, too. Its moneyline opened -146 and sits at -126, with Chicago +105 from +121.
The postseason opens at 11:00 AM Pacific with two gloves at opposite ends of the league. Atlanta's team defense ranks fourth in baseball at +62 Defensive Runs Saved, tied with Milwaukee. Philadelphia's is -51, tied with the Athletics for the worst mark in the majors: a 113-run gap between the dugouts.
It shows up in names. Michael Harris II is +13 Outs Above Average in center for Atlanta and Matt Olson is +11 at first. Philadelphia's Trea Turner (-8 at shortstop), Alec Bohm (-11 at third) and Bryce Harper (-8 at first) add up to -27 across the infield corners and the six-hole.
The starters are close on paper. Atlanta's Chris Sale carries a 2.16 ERA against a 2.97 expected ERA; Philadelphia's Jesús Luzardo is 2.85 against 2.83, so his results match his contact quality. What differs is what happens when a ball is put in play behind each of them. The market sees Atlanta's edge: -205 at home, with the total shaded from 7 to 6.5.
The Yankees played their last regular-season game Friday night, a 6-3 makeup win over Baltimore. Saturday's game had already been folded into that doubleheader, Sunday's finale with the Orioles was cancelled, and Monday was an off day. By first pitch tonight that's three full days without a game, and New York's relievers have thrown zero innings over the last three days.
Boston's Sunday looked different. The Red Sox lost 6-2 to the Cubs that day and used four pitchers: Tanner Houck started (3.0 innings, 50 pitches) and Patrick Sandoval followed for 4.2 innings and 98 pitches. Boston had Monday off, so it's one rest day against New York's three, and Sandoval is two days out from that long outing.
The starters are a matchup of contact quality. New York's Cam Schlittler has a 1.95 ERA against a 2.85 expected ERA; Boston's Payton Tolle has a 3.03 ERA against a 2.70 expected mark. The market has barely moved, with New York -145 (from -142) and the total holding at 6.5.
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