Vol. 1 · No. 149
THE HARD COUNT
"Read it before the snap."
~9 min read
NFL · 12
NHL · 2
MLB · 1
CFB · OFF
NBA · OFF
CBB · OFF
The Snap Count
Yesterday's Read
Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15, so only one of the two stayed unbeaten in the Big Ten (ESPN). Notre Dame-BYU, the game of four top-11 units, finished BYU 28, Notre Dame 24: 52 points against a 46.5 total. Shawn Armstrong, the reliever listed to start ALCS Game 4, threw 13 pitches over one inning; Cleveland used seven pitchers and Tampa Bay won 7-3 to tie the series 2-2 (MLB Stats API).
THE AUDIBLE NFL

Tanner McKee Has Two Career Starts. Jalen Hurts Is on Injured Reserve, and Carolina Is 13 Days Removed From Its Last Game.

1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA · 📺 CBS
Carolina @ Philadelphia · 2-2 at 2-3 · Eagles have lost three straight
Moneyline
CAR -162
opened PHI -285
Total
39.5
opened 43.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
Spread
CAR -3 (-112)
opened PHI -6.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL

Philadelphia's quarterback today is Tanner McKee, not Jalen Hurts. The Eagles said Hurts has a superficial blood clot in his calf, and ESPN's injury report lists him on injured reserve. McKee is in his third NFL season, has not played in a game this year, and is 1-1 as a starter (NBC Sports). Hurts had completed 89 of 154 passes for 933 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for a 2-3 team that has lost three in a row (ESPN).

Offensive lineman Landon Dickerson is also on injured reserve, and the leading receiver is Dontayvion Wicks with 17 catches for 260 yards (ESPN). The other side has its own exposure: Bryce Young has been pressured on 34.1% of his dropbacks, the most-exposed tier of a league at 23.4% (nflverse), while Jalen Carter leads the Eagles with 3 sacks. Young's pressure rate is an offensive-line number as much as a quarterback one. Carolina has had 13 days since a 32-26 win over Detroit on Oct. 5; Philadelphia has had 7, since its London game on Oct. 11.

The market moved with the news. DraftKings (via ESPN) has Carolina favored by 3 on a 39.5 total. ESPN's feed lists openers of Philadelphia -6.5 and 43.5, which may be look-ahead lines; SportsLine had the Eagles around 1-point underdogs before the news and 3.5-point underdogs after. Kickoff weather is 52°F, 6 mph and clear (Open-Meteo, WIS 0/7).

2
McKee career starts
13 / 7
CAR / PHI days rest
34.1%
Young pressure rate
39.5
Total (opened 43.5)
Source: ESPN (injury report, records, leaders, DraftKings), NBC Sports and SportsLine (Hurts, McKee), nflverse (pressure), The Odds API (nine books), Open-Meteo · 📺 CBS
THE READ NFL

Kickoff Is 8:30 AM on Houston's Clock, Outdoors on Grass at Wembley. C.J. Stroud Arrives Trending Up.

9:30 AM ET / 6:30 AM PT (2:30 PM London) · Wembley Stadium, London, England · 📺 NFL Network
Houston @ Jacksonville · London · 1-4 at 4-1
Moneyline
JAX -142
opened -105
Total
42.5
opened 41.5
Spread
JAX -2.5 (-118)
opened HOU -1.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL

Kickoff in London is 2:30 PM, which is 8:30 AM in Houston and 9:30 AM in Jacksonville: six time zones for the Texans, five for the Jaguars (a clock fact, not a claim about legs). Both teams played seven days ago, so there is no rest gap. The environment shifts instead: Houston is listed at home on artificial turf with the roof closed (nflverse), and today is outdoors on grass at 56°F with a 12 mph wind (Open-Meteo, WIS 1/7). Jacksonville's last game was in London too, a 19-17 win over Philadelphia on Oct. 11.

The records and the form point in different directions. Jacksonville is 4-1 and has won three straight; Houston is 1-4. But C.J. Stroud's passing EPA over his last three games is +7.5 a game against +3.6 on the season, and his CPOE is +8.4 against +4.0 (nflverse). He is 119-of-185 for 1,402 yards and 6 touchdowns; Trevor Lawrence is 96-of-143 for 1,174 yards, 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions (ESPN).

Running back David Montgomery and tackle Braden Smith are listed out for Houston, and Will Anderson Jr.'s 7.5 sacks lead its defense (ESPN). Nine books have Jacksonville at -2.4 on a 42.2 total (The Odds API).

6 hrs
HOU time-zone shift
+7.5
Stroud EPA/g, last 3
7.5
Anderson sacks
4-1 / 1-4
JAX / HOU
Source: ESPN (records, leaders, injuries, DraftKings), nflverse (games, EPA/CPOE), league schedule, The Odds API (nine books), Open-Meteo · 📺 NFL Network
STAT OF THE DAY NFL
+2.47
Yards per carry Kenneth Walker III gains over what his blocking gave him. League: +0.26.
87 carries for Kansas City, 537 yards, 4 touchdowns (ESPN, Next Gen Stats via nflverse).
RYOE compares each run to the yardage that tracking data expected from the defenders' positions at the handoff. Walker is also gaining 3.07 yards a carry after contact against 1.87 for the league (Pro-Football-Reference via nflverse); the miner scored the number 6.7 out of 10 on surprise. The Chargers are 0-5, with five straight losses by 6 to 12 points, and Justin Herbert has thrown 7 interceptions (ESPN). Kansas City has had 14 days since its last game; Los Angeles has had 7.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City · AFC West · 0-5 at 4-0
4:25 PM ET / 1:25 PM PT · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO · 📺 CBS
Moneyline
KC -410
Total
41.5
Spread
KC -7.5 (-108)
+2.47
Walker RYOE / carry
3.07
Walker yds after contact
537
Walker rush yards
0-5
LAC record
Source: Stat miner (nfl_player_form ryoe), ESPN (leaders, injuries, DraftKings), nflverse (NGS, PFR), Open-Meteo (64°F, 12.5 mph, WIS 1/7) · 📺 CBS
THE SHIFT MLB

The ALCS Is Tied 2-2, and Game 5's Winner Is One Win From the World Series. Both Starters Have Already Pitched in This Series.

5:08 PM ET / 2:08 PM PT · Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH · 📺 TBS / truTV
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland · ALCS Game 5 · Series tied 2-2 · Rasmussen vs. Messick
Moneyline
TB -136
opened -128
Total
6.5
Run line
TB -1.5 (+135)
opened +153

Tampa Bay's 7-3 win in Game 4 took 13 pitchers between the clubs: Cleveland used seven for 151 pitches, Tampa Bay six for 149. Foster Griffin threw 44 pitches and Daniel Espino has thrown 34 in three days; Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour threw 29. Those are workloads, not availability reports (MLB Stats API).

That makes the two starters the story. Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen has a 1.29 postseason ERA over two starts and 14 innings: 8 scoreless against the Yankees on Oct. 3, then 6 innings and 2 earned runs, both on home runs, in Game 1. Cleveland's Parker Messick, a lefty, threw 5 scoreless innings on 82 pitches in Game 2 at Tampa Bay and carries a 3.09 postseason ERA over three starts; his regular season was 186⅓ innings at 2.56 (MLB Stats API).

The winner goes up 3-2, with Milwaukee, which swept the Dodgers, waiting in the World Series. Nine books have Tampa Bay at -133 and Cleveland at +115 on a 6.4 total (The Odds API); the forecast is 60°F and clear with a 9 mph wind (Open-Meteo, WIS 0/7).

1.29
Rasmussen postseason ERA
2.56
Messick regular-season ERA
151 / 149
CLE / TB pitches, G4
2-2
Series
Source: MLB Stats API (probables, game logs, box scores), bullpen_usage.py, ESPN (DraftKings), The Odds API, Open-Meteo · 📺 TBS / truTV
Pre-Snap
NFL · BUF @ LV · 1:25 PM PT / 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas · 📺 CBS
Buffalo is six days past Monday night at the Rams, and the 53.5 total sits 8.2 points above the league's average since 2018 (nflverse). Tight end Dalton Kincaid has 17 scrimmage yards a game over the last three against 55 on the season.
NFL · BAL @ CLE · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland · 📺 Fox
Baltimore has won three straight. The last six meetings averaged 48.3 combined points; today's total is 39.5 (nflverse).
NFL · CHI @ ATL · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 📺 Fox
Atlanta scored 35, 45 and 23 in its last three, 34.3 a game against 23.8 on the season. Bijan Robinson gains 1.66 yards a carry over expected on 102 carries (nflverse).
NFL · DAL @ GB · 5:20 PM PT / 8:20 PM ET · Lambeau Field, Green Bay · 📺 NBC
Jordan Love's passing EPA is +9.1 a game over his last three against +4.3 on the season, and his 2.51 seconds to throw is the quick end of a 2.84 league average (nflverse). Dallas has had 10 days off, Green Bay 7.
NFL · PIT @ TB · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa · 📺 CBS
The 38.5 total is the lowest on the board. Aaron Rodgers's passing EPA is +5.1 a game over his last three against -2.8 on the season, and Jaylen Warren gains 3.21 yards a carry after contact against 1.87 for the league (nflverse).
NHL · CBJ @ MIN · 3:00 PM PT / 6:00 PM ET · Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul · 📺 ESPN+
Minnesota's Quinn Hughes has points in 8 straight games (12 points) and Kirill Kaprizov in 5 straight (11) (NHL API).
Also on the board — NFL: ARI@LAR 4:05 ET/1:05 PT · 📺 Fox · TEN@IND, NO@NYG 1:00 ET/10:00 PT · 📺 Fox · NYJ@NE 1:00 ET/10:00 PT · 📺 CBS. NHL: CAR@CGY 8:00 ET/5:00 PT · 📺 ESPN+.
College football, the NBA and college basketball are dark today.
Weather Watch
Nothing on the board clears a weather flag. Of the venues checked, Kansas City has the strongest wind at 12.5 mph, then London at 12.1 mph and Tampa at 11.4 mph (all WIS 1/7 or lower); Philadelphia is 52°F and 6 mph, and Cleveland's ballpark is 60°F and 9 mph. Green Bay's forecast did not return (rate limit). Football note: 15+ mph is the kicking and deep-passing threshold.
Two-Minute Drill

Three questions. Answers at the bottom.

  1. Kenneth Walker III was named MVP of Super Bowl LX last February. Which team did he play for then, and who was the opponent?
    Seattle beat New England 29-13; Walker ran for 135 yards on 27 carries (NFL.com, ESPN).
  2. Tampa Bay has reached two World Series, in 2008 and 2020. Name the opponents.
    The Phillies in 2008 (five games) and the Dodgers in 2020 (six); the Rays lost both.
  3. Cleveland's last World Series title came in which year, the longest active drought among the 30 teams?
    1948, over the Boston Braves.

3/3 = you're the sharp friend. 0/3 = you're reading the right newsletter.