Tarik Skubal Takes the Mound in Detroit Tonight for the First Time Since the Trade That Ended His Tigers Career.

The Audible

The AudibleMLBComerica Park

Tarik Skubal Takes the Mound in Detroit Tonight for the First Time Since the Trade That Ended His Tigers Career.

6:40 PM ET · Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Los Angeles Dodgers (80-54) at Detroit Tigers (62-71)
RHP Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs. RHP Drew Anderson (DET)

MoneylineLAD −216DET +200

Total7.5

RunlineDET +1.5LAD −1.5

Tarik Skubal spent parts of six seasons becoming the best pitcher in Detroit, then watched the Tigers ship him to Los Angeles at the trade deadline for a rental run at October. Tonight he starts against them for the first time.

The Dodgers gave up outfielder Zyhir Hope and two young arms, River Ryan and Brady Smith, for a two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner who hits free agency this winter — and through five turns in the L.A. rotation, he's been exactly who Detroit developed. Skubal's 2.91 ERA and 2.94 xERA are separated by three-hundredths of a run, no luck gap in either direction, backed by an 84.5% ground-ball rate near the top of the league and a changeup nobody's finding — a 48.6% whiff rate on a pitch he throws better than a quarter of the time. Drew Anderson counters for Detroit with a 4.09 ERA that's actually a shade unlucky against his own 3.70 xERA.

Los Angeles arrives having dropped three straight and thinner in the rotation than they'd like — Roki Sasaki went on the 15-day injured list yesterday with a finger blister, one more name off a staff that outbid the field for Skubal specifically because they'd need exactly this kind of night. Comerica Park is the building where this version of Skubal got built. Tonight it's the other dugout counting on him. Whatever's left of the emotional angle, the Dodgers need it to be a baseball answer too — snap a skid, keep the NL West lead from getting interesting.

2.91

Skubal's ERA (2.94 xERA — no gap)

84.5%

Skubal's ground-ball rate

48.6%

Whiff rate on his changeup

Sources: MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · ESPN — Watch: whether the Dodgers' skid ends the same night Skubal faces his old team

The Read

The ReadMLBYankee Stadium

Aaron Judge's Batting Average Reads Like a Quiet Year. His Contact Quality Reads Like an MVP Case.

7:15 PM ET · Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Boston Red Sox (73-60) at New York Yankees (75-58)
LHP Patrick Sandoval (BOS) vs. RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY)

MoneylineNYY −154BOS +143

Total7.0

RunlineNYY −1.5BOS +1.5

.248. That's what Aaron Judge is hitting through late August, a number that would read as pedestrian for a $40-million-plus outfielder in most seasons. It's also the least interesting fact about the year he's actually having.

Judge's expected numbers tell a different story than his batting line: a .415 xwOBA against a .385 actual mark, a 30-point gap that's the widest kind of "the results haven't caught up yet" signal Statcast tracks. His barrel rate sits at 21.7%, elite by any era's standard, and he's squaring up 57.3% of his balls in play — legitimately loud contact, whatever the average says. A 149 wRC+ means he's still creating runs at a rate 49% better than league average even in what's, for him, a down year at the plate.

Boston counters with Patrick Sandoval working a 4.54 ERA in a limited sample, against a Yankees club that gets Cam Schlittler — a 2.16 ERA, one of the better rookie seasons in the league — on the mound tonight. New York sits 75-58, four games back in the loss column of the division race; Boston's 73-60 and six back. Neither club is running away with anything, which is what makes the individual matchups the actual story. The box score says Judge is having a normal season. The exit-velocity readings say otherwise.

.030

Judge's wOBA-xwOBA gap

57.3%

Judge's hard-hit rate

149

Judge's wRC+

Sources: Baseball Savant · FanGraphs · ESPN — Watch: whether the contact quality finally shows up in the box score against Boston's staff

Stat of the Day

+19

Ceddanne Rafaela · Red Sox CF · Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)

Is Boston's Outfield Playing the Best Defense in the American League Right Now?

Ceddanne Rafaela might be playing the best defense of anyone in the American League this season, and it's not particularly close.

The number: +19 defensive runs saved and +16 outs above average in center field, with just two errors in 1,104 innings — a level of range and reliability that's been the quiet constant in a Red Sox season otherwise defined by a fading Wild Card push. DRS and OAA agreeing this cleanly on the same player, at the same magnitude, is rare; it means it's not a stat-model quirk, it's a real gap between what Rafaela covers and what the rest of the league's center fielders cover.

Boston is 73-60, six games back in the AL East, on a one-game skid heading into the Bronx tonight — the same Yankee Stadium matchup this issue's Read section covers from the other dugout. The offense and the rotation get the attention. The outfield defense has been the one thing that hasn't wavered.

Sources: FanGraphs · Baseball Savant — Watch: whether Rafaela's glove shows up in a game that comes down to a run or two

The Shift

The ShiftMLBProgressive Field

Cleveland's Seven-Game Winning Streak Has the Guardians Within 2.5 Games of First Place.

7:10 PM ET · Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Kansas City Royals (60-75) at Cleveland Guardians (68-66)
RHP Michael Wacha (KC) vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE)

MoneylineCLE −130KC +121

Total7.5

RunlineCLE −1.5KC +1.5

Seven straight. That's where Cleveland sits entering tonight, the longest active winning streak in the American League, and it's pulled the Guardians within 2.5 games of a White Sox club that looked like it had the AL Central handled a month ago.

Tanner Bibee gets the ball for Cleveland working a plain 3.97 ERA, and Kansas City counters with Michael Wacha at 3.49 — nothing dramatic on paper from either arm, which makes the streak itself the actual signal. Seven wins in a row without a single marquee performance to point to usually means a team is getting contributions across the roster rather than riding one hot arm or bat, the kind of streak that tends to hold up better than a heater built on one guy's month.

Kansas City arrives at 60-75, 11 games back and playing out the string, on a modest one-game winning streak of its own. The market has Cleveland at −130 with the total sitting at 7.5 — a number that hasn't needed to move because nobody's arguing with the favorite right now. The Guardians have made the division race interesting again without anyone outside Cleveland noticing yet.

7

Guardians' active win streak

2.5

Games back of first in the AL Central

-130

Cleveland's moneyline tonight

Sources: MLB Stats API · ESPN — Watch: whether the streak survives a Kansas City club it's already beaten four times this year

Pre-Snap

TEX @ MIL7:40 PM ET

Milwaukee's 83-51 record remains the best in baseball as they host a Texas club that's lost two of its last three series; Logan Henderson takes the ball for the Brewers against Cody Bradford.MIL −178 · total 7.5

COL @ ATL7:15 PM ET

Atlanta's won four straight and sits 79-55, chasing Milwaukee's league-best mark; Tomoyuki Sugano's ERA has ballooned to 7.58 over his last four August starts, and he draws a Colorado lineup still 27 games under .500.ATL −227 · total 8.7

CIN @ CHC2:20 PM ET

Chicago's lost two straight at Wrigley, but David Peterson has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this month — 2.66 ERA in four August starts — while Cincinnati's Rhett Lowder owns a stark day/night split, 7.71 in day games against 4.00 at night, on this getaway-day matinee.CHC −186 · total 8.8

PIT @ STL8:15 PM ET

St. Louis is as close to a coin flip as this slate gets — moneyline ranges from −106 to +104 across nine books with zero consensus on the favorite — while Pittsburgh's Jared Jones has seen his ERA balloon to 7.88 over four August starts after a strong first half.STL +11 · total 7.5

PHI @ LAA9:38 PM ET

Reid Detmers has been nearly unhittable this month for the Angels, a 1.50 ERA across four August starts, as Philadelphia (74-60) sends Andrew Painter to the mound — his own August ERA has come down more than two runs from his season mark.PHI −139 · total 8.0

SD @ TB7:10 PM ET

Casey Mize has been the most surprising negative in this slate's stat pull, a 7.00 ERA in four August starts up from a 3.44 season mark, as San Diego (72-62) visits a Tampa Bay club (79-54) that's been one of the American League's best stories all year.TB −131 · total 7.5

CWS @ MIN8:10 PM ET

Dean Kremer's home/road splits are extreme — 3.81 ERA at home against 6.53 on the road — and tonight he pitches on the road at Target Field against a White Sox club that leads the AL Central at 70-63 and has won two straight.MIN −128 · total 8.8

ARI @ SF10:15 PM ET

Arizona (71-64) carries the slate's best team defense by outs above average, +33, up the coast against a Giants club (55-79) still adjusting to life without Adrian Houser, who landed on the 15-day injured list this week with a forearm strain.SF +111 · total 7.5

MIA @ WSH6:45 PM ET

Miami is −151 favorites even on the road, and released left-hander John King this week as part of a bullpen shakeup; Washington has won its last game.MIA −151 · total 8.4

HOU @ NYM7:10 PM ET

Christian Scott's ERA has nearly doubled in August, 6.30, up from a 3.73 season mark, as Houston (67-67) visits Citi Field against a Mets club that's lost two straight and sits 60-74.NYM +110 · total 7.8

SEA @ TOR7:15 PM ET

Toronto signed free-agent right-hander Michael Lorenzen for bullpen depth this week and hosts a Seattle club, losers of one, as home favorites.TOR −182 · total 7.0

BAL @ ATH9:40 PM ET

This slate's highest total, 10.0, belongs to Baltimore and the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, where Baltimore is −149 favorites more than 2,300 miles from Camden Yards.BAL −149 · total 10.0

NFLAll Day

Ten Week 4 preseason games round out summer's final tune-ups before roster cuts — travel and rest are clean across the board, no red flags on today's slate, and it's not a stats slate yet.Preseason · Wk 4

US OPENAll Day

Men's and women's qualifying finals wrap up at Flushing Meadows — Kei Nishikori and Bianca Andreescu are among the recognizable names one win from the main draw.Qualifying · Final Round

Weather Watch

Nothing clears a full Weather Impact Score anywhere on the slate tonight. Oracle Park's evening wind is the one number worth a glance. Tropicana Field (dome), Rogers Centre and American Family Field (retractable) excluded as closed-roof venues.

ORACLE PARK · ARI@SF

Clear · 64°F · WIS 2/7

16.2 mph WNW

SUTTER HEALTH PARK · BAL@ATH

Clear · 90°F · WIS 1/7

8.1 mph WSW

COMERICA PARK · LAD@DET

Clear · 78°F · WIS 1/7

8.6 mph E

WRIGLEY FIELD · CIN@CHC

Clear · 77°F · WIS 1/7

8.9 mph ESE

TARGET FIELD · CWS@MIN

Overcast · 82°F

4.6 mph SSW

BUSCH STADIUM · PIT@STL

Clear · 83°F

4.6 mph ENE

TRUIST PARK · COL@ATL

Overcast · 89°F

3.5 mph SSW

YANKEE STADIUM · BOS@NYY

Clear · 78°F

3.8 mph NW

PROGRESSIVE FIELD · KC@CLE

Clear · 72°F

6.8 mph NNE

CITI FIELD · HOU@NYM

Mostly Clear · 77°F

0.6 mph NW

ANGEL STADIUM · PHI@LAA

Clear · 90°F

7.3 mph SW

NATIONALS PARK · MIA@WSH

Clear · 88°F

7.3 mph N

Two-Minute Drill

Three questions. Answers at the bottom.

01

Comerica Park, tonight's site for Skubal's return, replaced Tiger Stadium as Detroit's home. What year did it open?

2000 — Comerica Park opened April 11, 2000.

02

Cleveland's current seven-game winning streak is happening under a franchise name that's been in use since which year?

2022 — the club retired the Indians name after the 2021 season and took the field as the Guardians the following spring.

03

Tonight's Audible venue hosts a Milwaukee-less matchup, but the Brewers themselves used to play in a different league entirely. Which one did they leave, and when?

The American League — Milwaukee moved to the National League in 1998, the first franchise to switch leagues that way.

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