Winner advances, loser goes home. Atlanta won 94 games and the NL East and went 52-29 at Truist Park; Philadelphia won 88 and went 45-36 on the road. The series is 1-1 after the Phillies' 4-3 win in ten innings Wednesday, a game in which the two clubs threw 297 pitches.
What the schedule does not yet say is who pitches. As of this morning neither club has announced a starter (Fox Sports: "No starters named"). Reports out of Philadelphia have Aaron Nola lined up, with Zack Wheeler possible on short rest. Nola carries a 4.67 ERA over 175⅓ innings and lasted one inning, with three earned runs, at Tampa Bay on Sept. 26. Wheeler (3.00 ERA, 193 strikeouts in 162 innings) threw 97 pitches on Sunday, so a Thursday start would come on three days' rest.
Atlanta's reported starter is Grant Holmes, possibly behind an opener; the reported options are left-handers Ray Kerr and Brent Suter. Holmes owns a 3.44 ERA over 151⅔ innings, with 115 strikeouts against 62 walks. The template exists: on Sept. 25 at Miami, Kerr started and threw three innings, and Holmes followed with four on 54 pitches. Kerr has a 1.47 ERA over 18⅓ innings; Suter, 3.36 over 91.
Lineups are not posted, and neither dugout has to show its hand until the cards go in, so the Game 3 starter is the story until first pitch. The weather will not be: 79°F with a 5 mph breeze at Truist Park.
Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm each homered in Game 2, and between them they drove in all four Phillies runs in the 4-3 win.
The shape underneath is lopsided. Statcast has Schwarber at a 15.5% barrel rate and a 92.3 mph average exit velocity. Harper sits at 10.3%, Bohm 6.0%, Trea Turner 6.0%, Bryson Stott 5.9% and J.T. Realmuto 5.6%. Atlanta spreads the thump around: Matt Olson (14.1%), Ronald Acuña Jr. (13.0%), Drake Baldwin (12.9%) and Austin Riley (12.4%) all clear 12%. By FanGraphs the Braves' lineup is a 97 wRC+ and the Phillies' a 92.
The gloves widen the gap. Philadelphia's first base, third base and shortstop all grade below average by Outs Above Average: Harper -9, Bohm -11 and Turner -9, or 29 outs below average among the three. Atlanta's Olson is +12 at first and Michael Harris II +13 in center, though Acuña is -8 in right.
None of this is a forecast; Game 2 showed one barrel-heavy bat and two timely ones can beat a deeper lineup. The thing to watch is whether Atlanta's four convert contact the way Philadelphia's three did. Acuña's expected wOBA (.366) sits 18 points above his actual (.348), Baldwin's (.370) 12 above his (.358). Lineups are not posted; every number here is season-long.
Game 2 went ten innings and 297 pitches, and the bill lands on Thursday. This is a workload note, not an injury report: the arms below have simply thrown the most.
Atlanta first. Dylan Lee threw 16 pitches Tuesday and 15 Wednesday, Raisel Iglesias 7 and 9, and Didier Fuentes 12 and 21, so all three have pitched in both games (31, 16 and 33 pitches). Fuentes took the loss after Tyler Mahle's seven innings. The Braves' pen covered 5⅔ innings across the two games.
Philadelphia has spent differently. Andrew Painter threw 37 pitches over three innings Wednesday and got the win; Alex McFarlane has pitched both days (16 and 4 pitches). Jhoan Duran (1.82 ERA, 33 saves, 84 strikeouts in 59⅓ innings) threw 27 pitches Tuesday and sat Wednesday.
Length matters on both sides. A short start from either club hands innings to a bullpen that threw on one or both of the last two days, and neither club has said how it plans to get through the early innings.
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