The market has spent the week taking Penn State off the board. The Nittany Lions opened a 7-point favorite at Northwestern and are -2.5 at DraftKings; nine books quoted by The Odds API average Northwestern +2.7. The moneyline moved further, from -278 to -142, and the total dropped three points, from 48.5 to 45.5.
What changed was Saturday. Penn State led Wisconsin 17-0 in the second quarter and 20-10 in the third, then lost 24-20 at home after Wisconsin's Colton Joseph threw touchdown passes of 11 and 72 yards in the fourth quarter. Northwestern has its own loss to chew on, 29-23 at Indiana, so both teams are 0-1 in the Big Ten.
The new number runs through the quarterbacks. Northwestern's Aidan Chiles has 807 passing yards, six touchdown passes and no interceptions in three games, plus four rushing touchdowns, ten scores in all. CFBD grades him at 0.518 predicted points added per play over 101 plays, ahead of Penn State's Rocco Becht at 0.399 over 111.
The ratings have not moved with the price. SP+ rates Penn State at 16.9 and Northwestern at 7.3, a 9.6-point gap, and on a per-play basis Penn State's defense is at -0.067 PPA allowed against Northwestern's +0.106. The spread says Penn State by 2.5 in Evanston; the ratings say the gap is wider, and Friday night is the test of which is closer. Penn State is without receiver Koby Howard and lists cornerback Daryus Dixson as questionable (Last Word on Sports, Thursday).
Virginia Tech fired Brent Pry as head coach on Sept. 14, 2025, after an 0-3 start. A year later he is the Hokies' defensive coordinator, and the team is 4-0, its best start in nearly a decade per ESPN. It has 17 sacks in four games, 4.25 a game. Pitt's offense has taken four.
The two unbeaten records hide different profiles. Pitt scores 39.3 points a game and has allowed 34 in four games, 8.5 a game. Virginia Tech scores 43.3 and has allowed 64, 16.0 a game, with road wins at Maryland (35-26) and Boston College (21-14). Each has one FCS blowout in the sample, Pitt 59-0 over Bucknell and Virginia Tech 73-3 over VMI, which is worth a discount on both scoring numbers.
CFBD's havoc rate shows what the front does: Virginia Tech's defense creates havoc on 26.7% of plays, Pitt's on 17.9%. SP+ actually rates Pitt slightly higher overall, 14.7 to 12.3, so the home team is the favorite despite the ratings, not because of them. The spread has also moved three points toward Pitt, from -5.5 to -2.5.
The quarterbacks are close. Pitt's Mason Heintschel grades 0.462 predicted points added per play over 155 plays and Virginia Tech's Ethan Grunkemeyer 0.387 over 151, though Grunkemeyer's runs grade at 0.326 per play to Heintschel's 0.239. Pitt throws for 347.3 yards a game. What matters Friday is how that passing offense, sacked four times all year, handles a front with 17.
Detroit has not played yet. New York is 1-1: a 3-0 loss at Boston on Tuesday, a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, and now Detroit on consecutive nights. That is three games in four nights.
Igor Shesterkin has played both games. He faced 22 shots Tuesday and stopped 24 of 25 Thursday, per ESPN box scores. On Thursday the Rangers placed goalie Joonas Korpisalo, the other goalie on their ESPN roster, on injured reserve. This is a workload note, not a lineup report: none of the sources checked confirmed who starts in net tonight.
The price has drifted toward New York: Detroit opened -142 and is -130 at DraftKings, and the total dropped a full goal, from 6.5 to 5.5. Across nine books the consensus is Detroit -131 and a 5.8 total.
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