Every Division Series is one win from over. Chicago leads Cleveland 2-0 and Tampa Bay leads New York 2-0, so a win Wednesday is a sweep; Los Angeles and Milwaukee lead Atlanta and San Diego 2-1, so a win ends those too. A Game 5 would be Friday: Atlanta at Los Angeles at 5:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET and San Diego at Milwaukee at 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET, per ESPN's schedule. Atlanta's Game 4 starter is the day's clearest case of a season line hiding the real number.
Tyler Mahle's 3.99 ERA over 149 innings is two pitchers. He made 18 starts for San Francisco and has made nine for Atlanta since Aug. 7, with a 1.99 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 54⅓ innings; his stat page, which blends both, hides it. Tyler Glasnow is the opposite case: a 3.53 ERA against a 2.74 FIP and a 2.88 xERA over 74 innings, a 34.0% strikeout rate, and a curveball that drew whiffs on 53.2% of swings.
The bullpens are workload notes, not availability reports. Atlanta's Raisel Iglesias threw 3 pitches Sunday and 22 Tuesday, and Dylan Lee 14 and 9. For Los Angeles, Edwin Díaz threw 12 and 19 and Tanner Scott 19 on Tuesday. Freddie Freeman and Enrique Hernández each homered in Game 3, and Los Angeles scored its three runs in the fourth against Sale.
DraftKings has Los Angeles at -149 with a 7.5 total, which opened at 7.0; across nine books the consensus is -148 for Los Angeles and +127 for Atlanta, with the total at 7.5 everywhere. First pitch is forecast at 77°F, clear, with 5 mph wind (WIS 0/7).
Martinez is 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings, and the strikeouts are not why. His 15.1% strikeout rate leaves most outs to the fielders, and the number behind the ERA is higher: a 3.96 FIP and a 3.98 xERA, 0.88 above his ERA, with 81.6% of baserunners stranded. Tampa Bay leads the series 2-0 and New York has to win to stay alive.
The glove is the question, and the two systems disagree. Tampa Bay has +87 Defensive Runs Saved, second in baseball behind the Cubs' +115, but only +6 OAA, so how much of the credit belongs to range is open. Individually it is split: Junior Caminero has 42 home runs and a 142 wRC+ but is at -11 OAA at third base, while New York's Jazz Chisholm Jr. is at +15 OAA at second, with the Yankees at +26 DRS and -5 OAA as a team.
Max Fried is the other half. He has a 2.80 ERA against a 2.51 xERA, a 2.4% barrel rate and an average exit velocity against of 85.9 mph; Martinez's is 87.0 mph with a 6.8% barrel rate. Both starters give up soft contact, so the total of 7.0, the lowest of the four games, depends on what happens when the ball is put in play. Yankee Stadium has a 1.09 home run factor.
DraftKings has New York at -173 and Tampa Bay at +143; the nine-book consensus is -164 and +140 with a 7.1 total (7.0 to 7.5). First pitch is forecast at 57°F, clear, with 4 mph wind (WIS 0/7).
San Diego won Game 3, 4-3, after Nick Pivetta left in the fifth. Jason Adam (13 pitches), Yuki Matsui (23), Bradgley Rodriguez (21) and Michael King (40) covered 4⅔ innings, and King threw two innings for the save. Mason Miller, who threw 40 pitches in Game 2, was not used. Matsui has thrown 27 and 23 pitches in the last two games and Rodriguez 13 and 21. These are workload counts, not availability reports.
Milwaukee's bullpen is not fresh either. Its relievers threw 80 pitches over five innings in Game 3 after Dustin May lasted three: JoJo Romero 30, DL Hall 29, Antonio Senzatela 14 and Abner Uribe 7. Romero threw 15 pitches in Game 2 and 30 in Game 3; Uribe threw 26 and 7.
Walker Buehler starts for San Diego: 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA and a 4.51 FIP over 153 innings. Milwaukee had not named a starter when this issue was built. DraftKings has San Diego at -115 on the moneyline and a 7.5 total, unchanged from the open; the nine-book consensus is -112 for San Diego and -104 for Milwaukee. Petco Park has a 0.94 run factor. First pitch is forecast at 78°F, clear, with 4 mph wind (WIS 0/7).
Three questions. Answers at the bottom.
3/3 = you're the sharp friend. 0/3 = you're reading the right newsletter.