Hagen Smith retired two batters Wednesday and threw 21 pitches doing it. Thursday he is Chicago's listed starter, in a Game 4 where a White Sox win ends the series and a Cleveland win forces a fifth game. He has not pitched more than 2⅔ innings in any of his last eight appearances, which begin on Sept. 14, and his Game 1 start lasted 2⅔ innings and 51 pitches.
The season line says something else. Smith has a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings against a 2.35 FIP, with a 37.3% strikeout rate and a 14.5% walk rate (FanGraphs), and a 0.00 ERA over 17⅓ innings at home. Cleveland's listed starter is the opposite kind of pitcher: Parker Messick is 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA and a 3.07 FIP over 186 innings. He started Game 1 and went 4⅓ innings on 87 pitches, with six strikeouts and two earned runs.
Both bullpens spent Wednesday. Chicago's relievers threw 156 pitches in Game 3, led by Noah Schultz with 45 and Davis Martin with 31. Cleveland's threw 132, led by Foster Griffin's 53 over 2⅔ innings. Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have pitched in all three games, 36 and 33 pitches. These are workload counts, not availability reports.
DraftKings has Cleveland at -120 with a 7.0 total that opened at 7.5; across nine books the total runs 7.0 to 7.5. Rate Field has a 1.01 run factor and a 1.06 home run factor, and first pitch is forecast at 59°F, clear, with 5 mph wind (WIS 0/7).
Three games have produced 22 runs, 36 hits, one home run and 90 runners left on base. Munetaka Murakami hit the home run. Chicago's hitters have struck out 42 times in 94 at-bats, 3.8 strikeouts for every walk; Cleveland's have 27 strikeouts and 18 walks, 1.5 per walk. Chicago leads 2-1 anyway.
The hitters who have lasted are the ones who put the ball in play. Cleveland's Chase DeLauter has three hits in 12 at-bats and no strikeouts, and Chicago's Miguel Vargas has three hits and five walks. The high-variance bats are Jo Adell, who has four RBI and seven strikeouts in 11 at-bats for Cleveland, and Murakami, with the home run, three RBI and six strikeouts in 12.
The gloves have not been the story: each team has one error, both in Game 2. The season ratings split on Chicago, +1 in DRS but +17 in OAA, against Cleveland's +16 and +11 (FanGraphs).
The market has moved five points on Tampa Bay, and the reasons are on the injury report. Baker Mayfield is listed Out with a dislocated right thumb, and ESPN's list has him returning Oct. 25. Last Sunday Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie, started in his place against Green Bay: 19 of 27 for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, sacked three times, with eight runs for 55 yards. Tampa Bay had not confirmed a Thursday starter when this issue was built. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (fractured ribs), cornerback Benjamin Morrison and linebacker SirVocea Dennis are also listed Out.
The Buccaneers are 0-4, and every loss has been by seven points or fewer: 33-27, 23-19, 23-16 and 17-14, 20 points in all. They have scored 76 points in four games, 19.0 a game. Dallas is 2-2, scoring 30.5 and allowing 28.0, the number it tried to address by acquiring cornerback Joey Porter Jr. from Pittsburgh last week for a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick. His status for Thursday had not been confirmed when this issue was built. Dallas lists cornerback Cobie Durant and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown as Out.
The move is large on every line. The spread went from Dallas -3.5 to -8.5, the moneyline from -205 to -470, and the total fell five points, which suggests the market expects fewer Tampa Bay points. The nine-book consensus is Dallas -8.3 with a 48.1 total, so the move is not one book's. ESPN's DraftKings feed supplies the opening numbers; the tags mark the size of the move, not who made it.
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