The market has cut four points from both of BYU's numbers. The Cougars opened a 14.5-point favorite over Iowa State and are at 10.5, while the total has dropped from 50.5 to 46.5 (DraftKings, via ESPN). Nine books agree with the new numbers: the consensus is BYU -10.3 and 46.2, so the move is not one book's. The tags mark the size of the move, not who made it.
The scoreboards point the other way on points. Iowa State's last two games had 48 and 87 combined points: a 31-17 loss to Utah and a 45-42 win over West Virginia. BYU's last game, a 17-10 win at TCU, had 27. The two teams' three most recent games each average 55.5 combined points, 9.0 above tonight's total.
Iowa State's offense runs through Aiden Flora, who has 594 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 73 carries, 8.1 a carry; quarterback Jaylen Raynor has 903 passing yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. BYU's Bear Bachmeier is 55 of 86 for 704 yards, six touchdowns and one interception, and LJ Martin has 344 rushing yards on 44 carries. By CFBD's PPA, both offenses grade ahead of the defense they face: BYU's by 0.28 points a play, Iowa State's by 0.26.
SP+ rates BYU 16.3 and Iowa State 3.4, a 12.9-point gap on a neutral field, and ESPN ranks BYU No. 8. Provo is forecast at 73°F with a 7 mph southeast wind at kickoff (WIS 0/7).
Louisville has lost three games this season, and all three ended by the same margin: 41-38 to Ole Miss, 30-27 to Wake Forest and 31-28 at North Carolina State. The Cardinals are 2-3 and have outscored opponents 193-146, a point differential of +47. Florida State is 3-2 at +58, and its 27-24 loss to SMU was also by three points.
The number has moved toward Florida State. Louisville opened a 7.5-point favorite and is at 3.5, while the total has risen a point to 59.5, the highest of Friday's five FBS games. ESPN's DraftKings feed supplies the opening numbers, and nine books show the same -3.5 consensus. The feed does not say why the number fell.
The quarterbacks are the clearest difference on paper. Louisville's Lincoln Kienholz is 96 of 139 for 1,394 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception; Florida State's Ashton Daniels is 70 of 116 for 1,111 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions. Louisville's Tre Richardson has 445 receiving yards on 28 catches, and Florida State's Ousmane Kromah has 477 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
CFBD's SP+ has Louisville at 9.9 and Florida State at 5.7. Louisville is forecast at 77°F with a 5 mph wind at kickoff (WIS 0/7).
Kyle Connor has five goals in Winnipeg's four games, 1.25 a night, after scoring 39 in 82 games last season (0.48). Cole Perfetti has scored in three straight and has six points in the four games; he had 12 goals in 68 games last season. The Jets are 3-0-1. Four games are a small sample, a pace rather than a forecast.
Anaheim is 2-1-0 and has used Lukas Dostal for all three of its starts, with a .872 save percentage and a 3.67 goals-against average; no starter for tonight was confirmed in the feeds when this issue was built. The Ducks play again Saturday in Calgary, their second game in two nights, and tonight is Winnipeg's fifth game in eight nights.
Connor has three goals in Winnipeg's two home games and two in the two on the road (NHL API). Winnipeg is -125 at DraftKings and the nine-book consensus is -123, with a 6.5 total at every book; the puck line is Winnipeg -1.5 at +205.
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