Neither Game 2 Starter Has Gone Past 4⅔ Innings This October. Tampa Bay's Bullpen Allowed 5 Earned Runs Monday, and Cleveland's Threw 64 Pitches.

Three October starts sit behind tonight's two pitchers, and they lasted 4⅔, 4⅓ and 2⅓ innings (MLB Stats API). Freddy Peralta went 4⅔ against the Yankees on Oct. 5 and threw 66 pitches; Parker Messick went 4⅓ and 2⅓ against the White Sox on 87 and 65 pitches. Both were better in the regular season: Messick had a 2.56 ERA over 186 innings, and Peralta 4.42 over 169 across two clubs, 3.25 in 10 starts since Tampa Bay acquired him.

That leaves the innings to the bullpens, and Monday showed how they are being used. Cleveland won Game 1, 7-3, and Tampa Bay's relievers were charged with 5 earned runs in 3 innings: Cole Sulser 3 in two-thirds of an inning on 27 pitches, Tyler Wells 2 in one-third. Cleveland covered its last five innings with five relievers and 64 pitches after Foster Griffin went four. Hunter Gaddis (24 pitches Saturday, 13 Monday), Cade Smith (27, 6) and Erik Sabrowski (5, 14) have each pitched twice in three days.

Nine books price Tampa Bay between -137 and -130 and the total between 6.5 and 7 (The Odds API); ESPN's DraftKings line is -132, after Tampa Bay was -169 for Game 1. Tropicana Field is a dome with a 0.96 run factor. The pitch counts are workload, not availability; managers set that late, and the home plate umpire has not been posted.

Tampa Bay's glove has a reputation, and it is a Defensive Runs Saved reputation. FanGraphs lists the Rays at +87 DRS, second to the Cubs' +115 and ahead of Boston's +67; Statcast's Outs Above Average puts the same fielders at +6. Cleveland is nearly identical on both systems, +16 DRS and +11 OAA. In Game 1, 14 Cleveland hits came against that defense, with 10 strikeouts alongside: Chase DeLauter went 3-for-4 with a home run, José Ramírez 3-for-5 and Patrick Bailey 2-for-4 with a home run.

The lineup is less fearsome than the box score. Cleveland's offense was 97 wRC+ for the season, a .696 OPS and .142 isolated power (FanGraphs). DeLauter is the real bat in it (.287/.363/.457, 131 wRC+, 16 home runs); Bailey is a 70 wRC+ hitter whose glove is worth +12.7 runs (Def), and his wOBA of .271 sits under his .307 expected mark. Tampa Bay's answer is Junior Caminero, 42 home runs and a 142 wRC+, who went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts Monday.

The glove gets its work on balls in the air: Peralta carries a 41.9% fly-ball rate and 1.22 home runs per nine this season, Messick 37.2% and 0.82 (FanGraphs; Peralta's line spans two clubs). Tropicana Field is a dome with a 0.96 run factor, and the total is 7.

Freddy Peralta began the year as a Met after Milwaukee traded him in January and reached Tampa Bay on Aug. 2 (MLB Stats API transactions). His ERA with the Mets was 4.99 over 113⅔ innings; with the Rays it is 3.25 over 55⅓ and 10 starts. His last five regular-season starts, Sept. 1 through Sept. 25, covered 28 innings with 3 earned runs, 23 strikeouts and 9 walks: a 0.96 ERA.

The expected numbers are kinder to him than the results across the season. Baseball Savant has a 3.84 xERA against his 4.42 ERA, and FanGraphs a 4.28 FIP, both across the two clubs. Messick sits on the other side of the line: a 2.56 ERA against a 3.15 xERA, with 81.4% of baserunners stranded (LOB%).

The pairing is two starters on opposite sides of their expected numbers, each with an October start of 4⅔ innings or fewer. Peralta starts on eight days' rest after the 66-pitch outing against New York; Messick pitched Oct. 8. Lines and bullpen detail are in The Audible.