The Dodgers Are One Loss From Elimination. Two of Their Relievers Have Thrown 71 Pitches in the Last Two Games.

Milwaukee can win the pennant tonight. Game 3 was 2-1 Los Angeles after six innings, and the Brewers then scored five times in the last three and won 6-2, which makes the series 3-0; they have outscored the Dodgers 15-7 and Los Angeles has no home runs in it (MLB Stats API). Only one team in MLB history, the 2004 Red Sox, has won a postseason series after losing the first three games (MLB.com).

The workload is in the bullpens. Justin Wrobleski threw 11 pitches in Game 2 and 32 in Game 3 (1⅔ innings), Roki Sasaki threw 14 in each game, and Evan Phillips threw 10 on Wednesday. Milwaukee's Abner Uribe has thrown 13 and 20 and DL Hall threw 28 and Trevor Megill 18 in Game 3. Wednesday's relief totals were 56 pitches for Los Angeles and 66 for Milwaukee. Those are pitch counts, not availability reports (bullpen_usage.py).

Tyler Glasnow starts for Los Angeles with a 3.53 ERA, a 2.73 FIP and a 2.88 xERA; in his one start this October he went 4⅔ innings against Atlanta. Neither the MLB Stats API nor ESPN lists a Milwaukee starter this morning. Behind whoever it is, Brice Turang is +16 OAA at second base and Garrett Mitchell +8 in center (Baseball Savant).

Nine books price Los Angeles between -160 and -141 with a 7.5 total, and DraftKings has Los Angeles at -157 after opening -174 in ESPN's feed (The Odds API). Dodger Stadium has a 0.98 run factor and a 1.04 home-run factor, it is 87°F at first pitch with a 5 mph wind, and the home plate umpire has not been posted.

The series is tied 1-1 and moves to Cleveland for a 1:00 PM ET first pitch, the day after an off day. That is the part of the schedule that matters for Gavin Williams, who is 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and whose year splits in two: a 2.42 ERA and 7 home runs in 81⅔ innings across 13 day starts, a 4.82 ERA and 21 home runs in 102⅔ innings across 19 night starts. He is also 2.84 at home and 5.05 on the road (MLB Stats API). Baseball Savant has his barrel rate at 11.4%.

Both lineups lose something in daylight. Tampa Bay has a .701 OPS in 64 day games and .745 in 98 night games; Cleveland is .684 and .703 in 61 and 101. That works out to 4.2 runs a day game for the Rays against 4.7 at night, and 3.9 against 4.3 for the Guardians (MLB Stats API, team splits).

Griffin Jax has the smaller split: 3.94 in 32 day innings, 3.36 in 80⅓ at night. His 3.52 ERA sits below a 4.27 xERA (Baseball Savant), and his one October outing was 2 innings and one earned run against New York on Oct. 7. Behind him, Junior Caminero is -12 OAA at third base, among the 12 lowest marks in the majors.

Nine books agree on a 6.5 total, with Cleveland at -131 on the consensus (The Odds API). Progressive Field has a 0.98 run factor and 0.97 home-run factor, it is 59°F and overcast with a 5 mph wind at first pitch, and the home plate umpire has not been posted.

Los Angeles has 15 hits, 12 walks and 7 runs in three games, a .165 average with no home runs; Milwaukee is hitting .281 with five (MLB Stats API box scores). The case that the lineup is better than its week is in the Statcast file. Will Smith's wOBA is .345 against an xwOBA of .389, with a 12.4% barrel rate and an xSLG of .502 against a .426 slugging percentage. Shohei Ohtani is .377 against .397 with a 16.2% barrel rate and a 52.1% hard-hit rate, and Freddie Freeman is .348 against .363.

Expected stats describe the quality of contact, not who was pitching, and the sample here is three games: the Game 3 lineup went 5-for-32 with four walks and eight strikeouts, and Smith was 1-for-4. The glove is a second thread. Mookie Betts is +8 OAA at shortstop and Kyle Tucker -8 in right field (Baseball Savant). Tyler Glasnow, tonight's starter, has the same shape as his lineup: a 3.53 ERA against a 2.88 xERA.