Vol. 1 · No. 142
THE HARD COUNT
"Read it before the snap."
~8 min read
NFL · 13
MLB · 1
NHL · 3
NBA · 4
CFB · OFF
CBB · OFF
The Snap Count
Yesterday's Read
Alabama's run of 45-plus-point games ended at five: Georgia won 20-17 and has now allowed 20 or fewer in six straight. Texas-Oklahoma, the day's lowest total at 39.5, finished 27-24, a combined 51; Oklahoma had averaged 12.3 points over its previous three. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, a 51-point margin against the 39.5 spread. In Cleveland's elimination game, Gavin Williams, who threw 18 pitches Thursday, went 5⅔ innings on 94 pitches with 12 strikeouts and no earned runs in a 2-0 win over Chicago.
THE AUDIBLE NFL

Who Does Jalen Hurts Throw To in London? Philadelphia's Leading Rusher and Leading Receiver Are Both Out.

9:30 AM ET / 6:30 AM PT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · 📺 NFL Network
Philadelphia @ Jacksonville · NFL London Games · Eagles (2-2) vs. Jaguars (3-1), Jacksonville designated home team
Moneyline
JAX -380
opened +110
Total
41.5
opened 44.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
Spread
JAX -7.5 (-120)
opened +2.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL

Philadelphia reaches London without its two biggest names. ESPN's injury report lists running back Saquon Barkley and receiver DeVonta Smith, both with hamstring injuries, as out, along with linebacker Jonathan Greenard, center Drew Kendall and safety Marcus Epps. Barkley leads the Eagles with 182 rushing yards and Smith with 235 receiving yards; Smith has no line in last week's box score, and Barkley had two carries for eight yards (nflverse).

That puts the weight on Jalen Hurts, and his time to throw is the story. Next Gen Stats has him holding the ball 3.21 seconds a dropback, the longest of the 24 quarterbacks with 100 or more attempts, in a league averaging 2.85. He has been sacked 12 times in four games, every sack Philadelphia has allowed, and Pro Football Reference has him pressured on roughly 26% of dropbacks against a 23.0% league rate. Last Sunday against the Rams he went 12-of-27 for 93 yards. Receiver Darius Cooper, who averaged a 22% snap share before, played 90% of them and caught three of seven targets (nflverse).

Jacksonville is the other shape. The Jaguars are 3-1 with the NFL's second-fewest points allowed, 53, and Trevor Lawrence is 72-of-104 for 843 yards and eight touchdowns. Bhayshul Tuten has 277 rushing yards and gains 2.75 yards a carry after contact, against a league figure of 1.92. Both clubs flew about 3,500 to 4,000 miles across five time zones (Philadelphia 3,545, Jacksonville 3,956) for a 2:30 PM local kickoff, with seven days of rest each. ESPN's tracker shows the spread opening with Philadelphia a 2.5-point favorite.

182 / 235
Barkley rush yds / Smith rec yds (both out)
3.21 sec
Hurts time to throw (longest of 24)
12
Sacks on Hurts
2nd
JAX points allowed (53)
Source: ESPN game summary (leaders, injuries), ESPN standings, nflverse (player weeks, snap counts, Next Gen Stats, PFR), travel_rest (miles), ESPN pickcenter (DraftKings; openers as shown by ESPN), The Odds API · 📺 NFL Network
THE READ NFL

Brock Purdy Has Not Been Sacked in Four Games. Seattle Has Taken Down Quarterbacks 11 Times.

4:25 PM ET / 1:25 PM PT · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA · 📺 FOX
San Francisco @ Seattle · NFC West · 49ers (4-0) at Seahawks (3-1)
Moneyline
SEA -166
opened -198
Total
46.5
Spread
SEA -3 (-115)
opened -3.5

The NFC West has one unbeaten record left, and it is on the road. The reason is San Francisco's pocket: Purdy has taken zero sacks on 113 attempts, the only one of the 24 quarterbacks with 100 or more attempts who can say so. The next fewest is five (Kirk Cousins). Pro Football Reference charts him pressured on 13.0% of 123 dropbacks, the cleanest tier of a league at 23.0%. He is 79-of-113 for 1,007 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception.

Seattle is the test. The Seahawks have 11 sacks, seventh in the NFL, with Leonard Williams's three the most on the roster, and their opponents' quarterbacks have been pressured 42 times in four games (Pro Football Reference). Their own passer has the opposite profile: Sam Darnold has been sacked four times across three appearances, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 32 catches for 481 yards and six touchdowns. San Francisco will try to do the same without end Nick Bosa (calf) and tackle James Thompson Jr. (ankle), both listed out, along with fullback Kyle Juszczyk (knee).

The scoring history runs lower than the total: the last six meetings averaged 38.5 combined points, and the most recent, on Jan. 3, totaled 16 (nflverse). The Lumen Field forecast is 57°F with a 9.9 mph wind, WIS 1/7.

0 / 113
Purdy sacks / attempts
13.0%
Purdy pressure rate (league 23.0%)
11
SEA sacks (7th)
Out
Bosa, Thompson (SF)
Source: ESPN game summary (leaders, injuries), ESPN standings, nflverse (player weeks, PFR advanced stats, games), Open-Meteo, ESPN pickcenter (DraftKings; openers as shown by ESPN), The Odds API · 📺 FOX
STAT OF THE DAY NFL
33.0
combined points a game across the last three games each for Chicago and Green Bay
Today's total is 47.5. Chicago: 12, 34, 35. Green Bay: 37, 49, 31.
Both clubs opened the season with shootouts, Chicago's 59-37 win over Carolina and Green Bay's 39-22 loss at Minnesota, and the total still sits near them. Since then Chicago has scored 3, 27 and 23, 17.7 a game against 28.0 for the season, and quarterback Caleb Williams is listed questionable with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice. Jordan Love has the quickest release of any quarterback with 100 or more attempts, 2.48 seconds a dropback (Next Gen Stats), and Chicago's defense has 10 sacks, eighth in the NFL. Lambeau Field's forecast is 73°F with an 11.8 mph wind from the south-southwest and gusts to 22.6 mph, WIS 1/7.
Chicago @ Green Bay · NFC North · Bears (3-1) at Packers (2-2)
1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI · 📺 FOX
Moneyline
CHI -125
Total
47.5
Spread
CHI -1.5 (-112)
17.7 / 28.0
CHI points a game, last 3 / season
2.48 sec
Love time to throw (quickest of 24)
10
CHI sacks (8th)
11.8 mph
Kickoff wind (gusts 22.6)
Source: ESPN team schedules (scores), nflverse (Next Gen Stats, PFR advanced stats; miner 6.9/10), ESPN game summary (injuries), Open-Meteo, ESPN pickcenter (DraftKings), The Odds API · 📺 FOX
THE SHIFT MLB

Nine Books Cannot Separate Milwaukee From Los Angeles. Tarik Skubal Faces Jacob Misiorowski With a Total of 6.

8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT · American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI · 📺 FOX
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLCS Game 1 · Dodgers (100-62) at Brewers (103-59)
Moneyline
MIL -113
opened -118
Total
6
opened 6.5
Run line
LAD -1.5 (+165)
opened MIL -1.5

The Dodgers won 100 games and the Brewers 103, and the books cannot split them. Across nine, Milwaukee's moneyline runs from -115 to -106 and Los Angeles's from -113 to -103, so no book lists a plus price on either side, and the run line is split on which team gives the 1.5 runs. The total is 6 at DraftKings, down from 6.5, and runs 6.0 to 6.5 across the nine.

The reason is on the mound. Tarik Skubal, acquired from Detroit on Aug. 2, has a 2.61 ERA over 62 innings with the Dodgers and 2.72 over 158⅔ for the season, striking out 30.0% of batters and walking 4.4%. Jacob Misiorowski is 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and a 37.9% strikeout rate; his xERA is 2.13, and his four-seam fastball averages 100.6 mph, makes up 63.4% of his pitches and draws a 40.2% whiff rate (Baseball Savant). In their NLDS openers on Oct. 3, Skubal went six innings on 94 pitches with seven strikeouts, and Misiorowski four on 88 with six.

Neither team has played since Oct. 7, so both starters come in on eight days of rest and both bullpens are untouched. The lineups are close too: Los Angeles has a 111 wRC+ and a 20.4% strikeout rate, Milwaukee 107 and 22.0% (FanGraphs). The home plate umpire has not been posted, and American Family Field carries a 1.01 run factor with a retractable roof; ESPN's forecast is 68°F.

37.9%
Misiorowski strikeout rate
2.61
Skubal ERA with LAD (62 IP)
6
Total (opened 6.5)
103 / 100
Wins MIL / LAD
Source: MLB Stats API (schedule, game logs, transactions), FanGraphs (rates, team offense), Baseball Savant (xERA, pitch mix), ESPN pickcenter (DraftKings; openers as shown by ESPN), The Odds API (nine books), park_factors.json · 📺 FOX
Pre-Snap
NFL · MIN @ NO · Minnesota 4-0, New Orleans 1-3 · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome · 📺 FOX
Minnesota has allowed 51 points, the NFL's fewest; New Orleans has allowed 128, 31st. Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Jordan Addison (hamstring) are listed questionable. The Saints played Monday night and have six days to Minnesota's seven.
NFL · LV @ NE · Las Vegas 3-1, New England 2-2 · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium · 📺 CBS
Las Vegas travels 2,365 miles and three time zones for a kickoff that is 10:00 AM on its home clock. New England has scored 65 points, 30th of 32, and is favored after ESPN's tracker shows an opener of -8.5 against -3.5 now ⚡. Running back Ashton Jeanty (ankle) did not practice.
NFL · HOU @ TEN · both 0-4 · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · 📺 CBS
The board's only pairing of winless teams also carries its lowest total, 37.5, 7.8 below the league average since 2018 (nflverse). Tennessee has scored 55 points, 31st; Houston has allowed 109, 25th, and David Montgomery gains 1.09 yards a carry after contact against a league 1.92.
NFL · DET @ ARI · 1:05 PM PT / 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium · 📺 FOX
The 54.5 total is the day's highest, 9.2 above the league average since 2018 and identical at all nine books. Detroit has allowed 127 points, 30th, and Arizona 117, 28th. Sam LaPorta gets 3.60 yards of separation a target against a league 2.76; the last five meetings averaged 39.6 combined points.
NFL · CLE @ NYJ · Cleveland 3-1, New York 1-3 · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · 📺 CBS
New York is favored for the first time in 14 games, the last on Oct. 19, 2025, against a Browns team on three straight wins with 10 days of rest to the Jets' seven. Forecast: rain, 63°F, 13.1 mph wind with gusts to 28, WIS 3/7.
NFL · DEN @ LAC · Los Angeles 0-4 · 1:05 PM PT / 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium · 📺 CBS
The Chargers have scored 67 points, 29th, and Justin Herbert has been pressured on 29.2% of his dropbacks against a 23.0% league rate. Receiver Ladd McConkey (foot) did not practice and is questionable; Quentin Johnston (chest) is out.
NFL · CIN @ MIA · Miami 0-4 · 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium · 📺 FOX
Miami has scored 46 points, the fewest in the NFL. Joe Burrow's 2.57-second release is the second-quickest among quarterbacks with 100 attempts. The 89°F forecast is the warmest of the outdoor venues checked.
NFL · BAL @ ATL · Atlanta 2-2, Baltimore 3-1 · 5:20 PM PT / 8:20 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 📺 NBC
The two teams' last three games each averaged 50.5 combined points, 7.0 above the 43.5 total. Atlanta played Monday night and has six days to Baltimore's seven. Drake London gets 3.56 yards of separation a target; Ravens tight end Durham Smythe (Achilles) did not practice and Zay Flowers (foot) is questionable.
Also on the board — NFL: IND@PIT 1:00 ET/10:00 PT · 📺 CBS · NYG@WAS 1:00 ET/10:00 PT · 📺 FOX · NHL: SEA@WSH 5:00 ET/2:00 PT · 📺 ESPN+ · VAN@NYR 6:00 ET/3:00 PT · 📺 ESPN+ / MSG · CAR@PHI 7:00 ET/4:00 PT · 📺 NHL Network · NBA preseason: DAL@HOU (Macau) 6:00 AM ET/3:00 AM PT · 📺 NBA TV · ORL@CLE 6:30 ET/3:30 PT · 📺 ESPN · MIL@CHA 7:00 ET/4:00 PT · CHI@DEN 9:00 ET/6:00 PT · 📺 ESPN
College football and college basketball are dark today.
Weather Watch
🌧
Northwest Stadium, Landover
NYG @ WAS · drizzle, 67°F
15.2 mph from the ESE (gusts 32.7) · WIS 3/7
🌧
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
CLE @ NYJ · rain, 63°F
13.1 mph from the ESE (gusts 28.2) · WIS 3/7
🌦
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
IND @ PIT · drizzle, 64°F
10.3 mph from the SE (gusts 23.5) · WIS 2/7
☀️
Lambeau Field, Green Bay
CHI @ GB · clear, 73°F
11.8 mph from the SSW (gusts 22.6) · WIS 1/7
Washington's 15.2 mph is the only sustained wind above 14 mph on the board; New Orleans, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Atlanta play indoors or under a roof.
Two-Minute Drill

Three questions. Answers at the bottom.

  1. The Brewers and Dodgers met in the 2018 NLCS. Which team won, and by what score in Game 7?
    The Dodgers, 5-1 at Miller Park.
  2. Lambeau Field opened in 1957 under a different name. What was it called, and for whom was it renamed in 1965?
    City Stadium; it was renamed for Packers founder Curly Lambeau.
  3. Marshawn Lynch's "Beast Quake" run came in a January 2011 playoff game. Which team did Seattle beat, and what was the final score?
    The New Orleans Saints, 41-36.

3/3 = you're the sharp friend. 0/3 = you're reading the right newsletter.