Game 2 comes down to who has pitched when. Drew Rasmussen threw 8.0, 6.0 and 7.0 innings in his three October starts (the Yankees, then Cleveland twice): 21.0 innings, 3 earned runs, 23 strikeouts, the last one on Oct. 18. Logan Henderson made two starts, 5.0 innings against San Diego and 4.0 against the Dodgers, 9.0 innings and 136 pitches in all. He has not appeared since Oct. 12.
Neither is a mystery on paper. Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA over 172 innings and a 2.81 FIP. Henderson went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA over 98⅓ innings, a 3.32 FIP and an 87.0% strand rate, which FanGraphs flags as hard to hold. Statcast's expected ERA is 3.06 for Rasmussen and 2.74 for Henderson.
The bullpens come off different Game 1 workloads. Milwaukee used three relievers for the last 4.0 innings: Aaron Ashby (20 pitches), Trevor Megill (20) and Abner Uribe (15). Tampa Bay's Steven Matz threw 31 pitches over 1⅔ innings, with Kevin Kelly (12), Garrett Cleavinger (10) and Cole Sulser (4) also used. Those are workloads, not availability; the managers decide who is ready.
Milwaukee's Game 1 price closed at -198. Tonight it is -120 at DraftKings and between -134 and -118 across nine books, with the total at 6.5 everywhere. Seven books list Milwaukee at -1.5 on the run line; DraftKings and FanDuel list Tampa Bay there.
The poll and the price disagree by a wide margin. Ole Miss is 5-1 and ranked 7th; Texas is 4-2 and ranked 19th. Texas is still a home favorite at -3, with an eight-book consensus of -3.1. ESPN's DraftKings page lists the opening numbers as Texas -9.5 and -340 on the moneyline, so the spread has shortened 6.5 points and the price 185 cents.
The rating that agrees with the market is SP+, which has Texas at 21.1 and Ole Miss at 17.1 (CFBD). The gap is on defense. Texas allows a 34.2% success rate and generates havoc on 20.0% of plays; Ole Miss allows 44.2% and 16.2%. The other side of the ball runs the opposite way: Ole Miss's offense is +0.313 predicted points per play to Texas's +0.026.
At quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss is 142 of 210 for 1,676 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Arch Manning is 106 of 166 for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Per play, CFBD rates Chambliss at +0.373 and Manning at +0.144. Ole Miss's top target, Deuce Alexander, has 35 catches for 523 yards and 5 touchdowns.
A poll rewards results. The price is paying for per-play defense, and Saturday night is the first time the two get tested against each other.
UCF is 3-0 at home and 0-3 away, and the scoring gap is its whole season. At home the Knights scored 73, 44 and 21 (46.0 a game) and allowed 6, 30 and 13 (16.3). On the road they scored 7 at Pittsburgh, 17 at Houston and 28 at Oklahoma State (17.3) and allowed 12, 27 and 42 (27.0).
The home number leans on a 73-6 win over Bethune-Cookman. Against FBS opponents at home, UCF averaged 32.5 (Georgia State 44-30, TCU 21-13), still 15.2 points a game above its road scoring.
BYU has played two road games, a 41-23 win at Colorado State and a 17-10 win at TCU, and arrives on 7 days of rest to UCF's 14. Bear Bachmeier is 100 of 152 for 1,257 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. CFBD rates BYU's offense at +0.297 predicted points per play to UCF's +0.074, and SP+ has BYU at 20.6 and UCF at 4.0. The line has moved toward UCF: BYU opened -9.5 and is -7, and the total slid from 45.5 to 43.5.
The Knights' season splits cleanly in two, and Saturday falls on the good side of it. Whether a home split built partly on a 73-6 game holds against the No. 2 team in the country is the open question.
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