THE AUDIBLE NFL
Minnesota Is a 6.5-Point Favorite Over Indianapolis, Up From 3 in ESPN's Opening Line. The Total Has Fallen From 47.5 to 41.5.
1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN · 📺 CBS
Indianapolis @ Minnesota · 2-4 at 5-0 · Vikings are unbeaten
Moneyline
MIN -325
opened -162
Total
41.5
opened 47.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
Spread
MIN -6.5 (-115)
opened -3
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
The line has moved a long way toward Minnesota. ESPN's DraftKings feed has the Vikings favored by 6.5 on a 41.5 total, and the same feed lists openers of Minnesota -3 and 47.5: a 3.5-point shift on the spread and a 6-point drop on the total. The moneyline went from -162 to -325. Nine books agree on where it sits now, with Minnesota at -6.8 on average and 41.5 on every board (The Odds API). ESPN's opening numbers can be look-ahead lines, so the size of the gap is the fact, not the date it began.
The Colts' week has been loud. ESPN reported Sunday morning, citing sources, that Indianapolis is expected to field trade inquiries on Jonathan Taylor, DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson as the NFL trade deadline looms, and that Peyton Manning is not expected to be a candidate for the team's vacant general manager job. Nothing we pulled ties those stories to the price. On the field, Daniel Jones has 1,290 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions for a 2-4 team, and Taylor has 492 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on 122 carries (ESPN).
Minnesota is 5-0 with a +45 point differential, one of three unbeaten teams in the league, and has had 14 days since its 23-13 win at New Orleans on Oct. 11; Indianapolis has had 7. The Vikings activated running back Jordan Mason from injured reserve on Saturday, after a fractured thumb that needed surgery (ESPN). The game is indoors, and nflverse lists U.S. Bank Stadium as a dome.
14 / 7
MIN / IND days rest
THE READ NFL
Kenneth Walker III Was Super Bowl MVP in Seattle's Colors. Tonight He Carries for Unbeaten Kansas City Against His Old Team.
8:20 PM ET / 5:20 PM PT · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA · 📺 NBC
Kansas City @ Seattle · 5-0 at 3-3 · Sunday Night Football
Moneyline
SEA -148
opened -155
Total
42.5
opened 45.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
Walker ran 27 times for 135 yards in Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl LX win over New England, then signed with Kansas City in March (NFL.com, ESPN). Tonight he returns to Lumen Field with 106 carries, 665 yards and 6 touchdowns for a 5-0 Chiefs team (ESPN).
A week ago his RYOE stood at +2.47 a carry on 87 carries. After 19 more it is +2.65 against a league average of +0.17, and he gains 3.03 yards a carry after contact against 1.82 for the league (nflverse, Next Gen Stats, Pro-Football-Reference). Both numbers are built to separate the runner from the blocking in front of him.
Seattle's side of the ledger is the passing game. Sam Darnold has been pressured on 34.5% of 168 charted dropbacks against a league rate of 22.9%, holds the ball 3.12 seconds against 2.84, and Seattle's passing EPA is -8.0 a game over its last three (-5, -12, -7) against +0.3 on the season (nflverse). He has 1,033 yards, 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 717 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (ESPN). Pressure rate is an offensive-line number as much as a quarterback one.
DraftKings (via ESPN) has Seattle by 3 on a 42.5 total that opened at 45.5; nine books have the Seahawks at -2.9 (The Odds API). Kansas City placed running back Brashard Smith on injured reserve this weekend (ESPN). The forecast is 52°F and overcast with a 7 mph wind and a 39% chance of rain (Open-Meteo, WIS 0/7).
3.03
Walker yds after contact
34.5%
Darnold pressure rate
STAT OF THE DAY NFL
3
NFL teams without a loss, and all three play today.
San Francisco 6-0, Kansas City 5-0, Minnesota 5-0. The next-best record is Buffalo's 5-1, and Buffalo is not playing (ESPN standings).
Their combined point differential is +169 (+67, +57, +45), and the market splits them: San Francisco is a 2.5-point road favorite here, Minnesota a 6.5-point home favorite, and Kansas City a 3-point road underdog in Seattle (DraftKings via ESPN). The 49ers have the shortest turnaround of the three, five days since a Monday-night win over Washington, and fly about 2,100 miles for a kickoff that is 10:00 AM on their own clock (league schedule, ESPN). Brock Purdy's passing EPA is +3.4 a game over his last three against +10.2 on the season, while Atlanta, 0-3 at home, has Michael Penix Jr. pressured on 15.6% of his dropbacks, the cleanest tier of a league at 22.9% (nflverse). Wide receiver Christian Kirk was activated from injured reserve on Saturday (ESPN). The streak angles scored 8.0 to 8.5 out of 10 on the miner's surprise scale.
San Francisco @ Atlanta · 6-0 at 2-4 · NFC
1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA · 📺 Fox
THE SHIFT NHL
Two NHL Teams Play Tonight After Playing Saturday. Minnesota Beat Seattle 5-1 and Is Favored in Vancouver; Nashville Lost at Pittsburgh and Is a Home Underdog.
10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT · Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC · 📺 ESPN+
Minnesota @ Vancouver · Wild on night two · 7-3-2 at 2-9-1
Minnesota beat Seattle 5-1 on Saturday night and is in Vancouver tonight; Nashville lost 3-2 at Pittsburgh on Saturday and hosts Colorado at 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT (NHL API). Those are the only two teams on the five-game card playing a back-to-back. The other eight last played Thursday or Friday: Vancouver on Thursday, a 5-2 loss to Detroit, and Colorado on Friday, a 6-3 win over Tampa Bay.
The books price the two tired-looking teams in opposite ways, which is the point. Nine books have Minnesota at -191 and Vancouver at +162 on a 6.5 total, and Colorado at -233 at Nashville with the Predators at +194, also on 6.5 (The Odds API). Minnesota is 7-3-2 and Vancouver 2-9-1; Colorado is 6-4-1 and Nashville 3-3-4 (ESPN). A back-to-back is a schedule fact, not a forecast of anything: it tells you which clock each team is on, and the prices tell you what the market made of it.
Pre-Snap
NFL · PIT @ NO · 9:30 AM ET / 6:30 AM PT · Stade de France, Paris · 📺 NFL Network
Kickoff is 2:30 PM in Paris, 8:30 AM in New Orleans and 9:30 AM in Pittsburgh; the trip from Pittsburgh's last game is 4,565 miles and from New Orleans's 3,625, both on 7 days' rest (league schedule). Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite on a 43.5 total, and the two teams' recent games average 53.0 combined points, 9.5 above it (ESPN). Germie Bernard played 94% of Pittsburgh's snaps last week, up from a 48% average (nflverse).
NFL · GB @ DET · 4:25 PM ET / 1:25 PM PT · Ford Field, Detroit, MI · 📺 Fox
The 55.5 total is the highest on the NFL board, up from 50.5 in ESPN's opening line, with Detroit favored by 3.5. Detroit has had 14 days since its last game; Green Bay has won three straight, the latest Monday night over Dallas (ESPN).
NFL · NYG @ HOU · 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX · 📺 Fox
Houston is a 10.5-point home favorite, the widest spread on the board, against 5.5 in ESPN's opening line, on a 42.5 total. The two teams' recent games average 55.5 combined points. Malik Nabers has 17.5 touches and targets a game over the last two weeks against 10.2 on the season (nflverse).
NFL · CIN @ BAL · 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD · 📺 CBS
Cincinnati is off a bye (14 days) and a 3-point road favorite on a 46.5 total; ESPN's feed lists openers of Baltimore -3.5 and 52.5, which may be look-ahead lines. Nine books have Baltimore at +2.9 (The Odds API). Baltimore placed linebacker Tavius Robinson on injured reserve (ESPN).
NFL · LAR @ LV · 4:25 PM ET / 1:25 PM PT · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV · 📺 Fox
Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite, a four-point move from ESPN's opening line of 7.5. Las Vegas has lost three straight. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is listed questionable with a calf injury and did not practice (nflverse practice report).
NFL · DEN @ ARI · 4:05 PM ET / 1:05 PM PT · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ · 📺 CBS
Denver is a 4.5-point road favorite, down from 7.5 in ESPN's opening line. Arizona quarterback Carson Beck is listed questionable with a back injury after not practicing (nflverse). Jaylen Waddle is getting 4.06 yards of separation a target for Denver against a league average of 2.89.
NBA · LAL @ UTAH · 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT · 📺 NBA League Pass
Both teams played Saturday night: the Lakers beat the Clippers 125-117 and Utah beat New Orleans 120-119, so each is on a back-to-back. Nine books have the Lakers at -243 and Utah at +200 on a 237.7 total (The Odds API).
NBA · DET @ PHI · 7:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM PT · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA · 📺 NBA League Pass
Another double back-to-back: Philadelphia beat Milwaukee 127-116 on Saturday to move to 3-0, and Detroit won 128-111 at Miami. The books cannot separate them, with Philadelphia at -0.8 on average and moneylines of -114 and -106 (ESPN, The Odds API).
Correction note: Opening lines in this issue are from ESPN's DraftKings feed and can be look-ahead numbers; the claim is the size of the gap, not when it began.
Also on the board — NFL: TB@CAR, 1:00 ET/10:00 PT · 📺 Fox · CLE@TEN, MIA@NYJ, 1:00 ET/10:00 PT · 📺 CBS. NBA: IND@BKN 6:00 ET/3:00 PT · ORL@NY, LAC@OKC 7:00 ET/4:00 PT · TOR@MIN 7:00 ET/4:00 PT · 📺 NBA TV · MEM@SAC 9:00 ET/6:00 PT. NHL: FLA@CHI 3:00 ET/12:00 PT, NYI@DAL 6:00 ET/3:00 PT · 📺 ESPN+ · MTL@WPG 7:00 ET/4:00 PT · 📺 TNT.
College football and college basketball are dark. Baseball is off until World Series Game 3 on Monday at Tropicana Field, 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT, with the Brewers up 2-0 (Robert Gasser vs. Freddy Peralta, MLB Stats API).