Milwaukee leads 2-0 on one-run wins, 3-2 and 5-4, and neither club got length from its starters: Jacob Misiorowski went 5 innings, Nick Martinez 5, Drew Rasmussen 3⅔ and Logan Henderson 3 (MLB Stats API). That left relievers with 10 of Milwaukee's 18 innings and 7⅓ of Tampa Bay's 16.
Four of them worked both nights. Aaron Ashby threw 20 and 28 pitches and Abner Uribe 15 and 26 for Milwaukee; Kevin Kelly threw 12 and 32 and Steven Matz 31 and 8 for Tampa Bay. Sunday was an off day, so each arrives on one day of rest. Those are workload counts, not injury reports: they say who has been used, not who is available.
Game 3 belongs to Robert Gasser and Freddy Peralta. Gasser has made two postseason starts, 4 innings on Oct. 7 and 5 on Oct. 14, and has not pitched since, 12 days (MLB Stats API). His 3.87 ERA sits below a 4.27 xERA. Peralta threw 99 pitches over six innings without an earned run on Oct. 13 and 84 over 5⅓ on Oct. 19; his 4.42 ERA sits above a 3.84 xERA (Baseball Savant). Milwaukee also activated right-hander Brandon Woodruff from the 60-day injured list on Friday (MLB Stats API). Tropicana Field is a dome, so weather is not a factor.
The box scores say Milwaukee should be further ahead. The Brewers have 19 hits to Tampa Bay's 14 and have stranded 20 runners to the Rays' 10, and still have scored only 8 runs to the Rays' 6 (MLB Stats API). Jackson Chourio is 4-for-9 and William Contreras 4-for-8; the traffic is there and the runs have not followed.
Tampa Bay's runs run through its catcher. Hicks drove in two in Game 1 without a hit, going 0-for-4, then homered and drove in two more in Game 2. His regular-season line was .284 with 18 home runs, but Statcast's xwOBA of .319 trails his actual wOBA of .352, and he hit the ball hard on 27.1% of his batted balls (Baseball Savant). In the postseason he is hitting .212 with 8 RBI in 11 games.
The gloves have been quiet. Game 2 had one error each: Cooper Pratt's throwing error in the first, and Jonathan Aranda's fielding error in the fourth, on which David Hamilton reached and Pratt scored (MLB Stats API). Statcast has Aranda at +3 Outs Above Average at first base, Tampa Bay third baseman Junior Caminero at -12 with a 13.1% barrel rate, and Chourio at +7 in left field (Baseball Savant).
The quarterback is the reason the number moved. Jalen Hurts was placed on injured reserve with a blood clot in his calf, and the earliest he can return is Week 11; NBC Philadelphia reported he will miss this game. Tanner McKee, who started the Carolina loss on Oct. 18, went 26-of-45 for 215 yards and was sacked three times (ESPN). Saquon Barkley is listed questionable (ESPN).
DraftKings, via ESPN, lists Philadelphia -3 at the open and Dallas -4.5 now, a 7.5-point swing, with the total down from 48.5 to 43.5. ESPN's opening numbers can be look-ahead lines, so the size of the gap is the fact, not the date it began. Nine books sit within a point of each other on the total, 43.5 to 44.5 (The Odds API).
Dallas is not a picture of health either. Dak Prescott's passing EPA is -0.6 a game over his last three against +6.2 on the season, and Dallas is 2-4, the same record as Philadelphia, and both are 1-3 in the NFC (ESPN, nflverse). Dallas has had 8 days since its last game and Philadelphia 9. The forecast is 58°F and clear with a 5 mph wind (Open-Meteo, WIS 0/7).
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