Vol. 1 · No. 157
THE HARD COUNT
"Read it before the snap."
~7 min read
MLB · 1
NFL · 1
NBA · 9
NHL · 3
CFB · OFF
CBB · OFF
The Snap Count
Yesterday's Read
Minnesota beat Indianapolis 16-10, 26 combined points against a total that had opened at 47.5 and closed at 41.5 (ESPN). Kenneth Walker III carried 14 times for 36 yards in Kansas City's 20-3 loss at Seattle (ESPN). San Francisco and Kansas City both lost, so Minnesota (6-0) is the NFL's only unbeaten team (ESPN). In the NHL, Minnesota won 4-2 at Vancouver and Nashville beat Colorado 6-2 on the second night of their back-to-backs (ESPN).
THE AUDIBLE MLB

Four Relievers Have Pitched in Both World Series Games, and Bullpens Have Covered 17⅓ of the 34 Innings. Sunday Was the Only Day Off.

8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT · Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL · 📺 Fox
Milwaukee @ Tampa Bay · World Series Game 3 · Brewers lead 2-0
Moneyline
TB -120
Total
7
Series
MIL 2-0

Milwaukee leads 2-0 on one-run wins, 3-2 and 5-4, and neither club got length from its starters: Jacob Misiorowski went 5 innings, Nick Martinez 5, Drew Rasmussen 3⅔ and Logan Henderson 3 (MLB Stats API). That left relievers with 10 of Milwaukee's 18 innings and 7⅓ of Tampa Bay's 16.

Four of them worked both nights. Aaron Ashby threw 20 and 28 pitches and Abner Uribe 15 and 26 for Milwaukee; Kevin Kelly threw 12 and 32 and Steven Matz 31 and 8 for Tampa Bay. Sunday was an off day, so each arrives on one day of rest. Those are workload counts, not injury reports: they say who has been used, not who is available.

Game 3 belongs to Robert Gasser and Freddy Peralta. Gasser has made two postseason starts, 4 innings on Oct. 7 and 5 on Oct. 14, and has not pitched since, 12 days (MLB Stats API). His 3.87 ERA sits below a 4.27 xERA. Peralta threw 99 pitches over six innings without an earned run on Oct. 13 and 84 over 5⅓ on Oct. 19; his 4.42 ERA sits above a 3.84 xERA (Baseball Savant). Milwaukee also activated right-hander Brandon Woodruff from the 60-day injured list on Friday (MLB Stats API). Tropicana Field is a dome, so weather is not a factor.

17⅓ / 34
Relief innings, G1-2
48
Ashby pitches, 2 nights
12
Days since Gasser pitched
2-0
MIL series lead
Source: MLB Stats API (box scores, probables, transactions), Baseball Savant, DraftKings via ESPN · 📺 Fox
THE READ MLB

Milwaukee Has Left 20 Runners on Base and Leads 2-0. Tampa Bay Has Six Runs, and Liam Hicks Has Driven In Four of Them.

8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT · Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL · 📺 Fox
Milwaukee @ Tampa Bay · World Series Game 3 · the bats and the gloves

The box scores say Milwaukee should be further ahead. The Brewers have 19 hits to Tampa Bay's 14 and have stranded 20 runners to the Rays' 10, and still have scored only 8 runs to the Rays' 6 (MLB Stats API). Jackson Chourio is 4-for-9 and William Contreras 4-for-8; the traffic is there and the runs have not followed.

Tampa Bay's runs run through its catcher. Hicks drove in two in Game 1 without a hit, going 0-for-4, then homered and drove in two more in Game 2. His regular-season line was .284 with 18 home runs, but Statcast's xwOBA of .319 trails his actual wOBA of .352, and he hit the ball hard on 27.1% of his batted balls (Baseball Savant). In the postseason he is hitting .212 with 8 RBI in 11 games.

The gloves have been quiet. Game 2 had one error each: Cooper Pratt's throwing error in the first, and Jonathan Aranda's fielding error in the fourth, on which David Hamilton reached and Pratt scored (MLB Stats API). Statcast has Aranda at +3 Outs Above Average at first base, Tampa Bay third baseman Junior Caminero at -12 with a 13.1% barrel rate, and Chourio at +7 in left field (Baseball Savant).

4 of 6
Hicks share of TB RBI
20
MIL runners left on
.352 / .319
Hicks wOBA / xwOBA
-12
Caminero OAA, 3B
Source: MLB Stats API (box scores, play-by-play), Baseball Savant (xwOBA, OAA, barrel rate) · 📺 Fox
STAT OF THE DAY NHL
11
Games in Edmonton's season, and Connor McDavid has a point in every one of them.
33 points, 8 goals and 25 assists, in 11 games, which is 13% of an 82-game season (NHL API).
McDavid has 16 points in his last five games, 4 goals and 12 assists, after 23 points in the first eight. Teammate Leon Draisaitl has scored in six straight games, 9 goals, with 8 goals in six home games against 4 in five on the road (NHL API). Detroit arrives at 4-4-3 against an Edmonton team at 8-2-1 (ESPN). Eleven games is a short sample, and a streak is a description of what already happened. The miner scored it 10.0 out of 10 on its surprise scale. Nine books have Edmonton at -176 on average and Detroit at +148, on a 6.5 total (The Odds API).
Detroit @ Edmonton · 4-4-3 at 8-2-1
9:30 PM ET / 6:30 PM PT · Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB · 📺 ESPN+
Moneyline
EDM -176
Total
6.5
Puck line
EDM -1.5
33
McDavid points
16
Points, last 5 GP
6
Draisaitl goal streak
-176
EDM avg price
Source: NHL API (game logs), ESPN (records), The Odds API (nine books), stat miner · 📺 ESPN+
THE SHIFT NFL

Philadelphia Has Lost Four Straight for the First Time Under Nick Sirianni. Dallas Opened as a 3-Point Underdog Here and Is Now Favored by 4.5.

8:15 PM ET / 5:15 PM PT · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA · 📺 ESPN / ABC
Dallas @ Philadelphia · Monday Night Football · 2-4 at 2-4
Moneyline
DAL -205
opened +136
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
Total
43.5
opened 48.5
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL
Spread
DAL -4.5 (-108)
opened +3
⚡ SHARP SIGNAL

The quarterback is the reason the number moved. Jalen Hurts was placed on injured reserve with a blood clot in his calf, and the earliest he can return is Week 11; NBC Philadelphia reported he will miss this game. Tanner McKee, who started the Carolina loss on Oct. 18, went 26-of-45 for 215 yards and was sacked three times (ESPN). Saquon Barkley is listed questionable (ESPN).

DraftKings, via ESPN, lists Philadelphia -3 at the open and Dallas -4.5 now, a 7.5-point swing, with the total down from 48.5 to 43.5. ESPN's opening numbers can be look-ahead lines, so the size of the gap is the fact, not the date it began. Nine books sit within a point of each other on the total, 43.5 to 44.5 (The Odds API).

Dallas is not a picture of health either. Dak Prescott's passing EPA is -0.6 a game over his last three against +6.2 on the season, and Dallas is 2-4, the same record as Philadelphia, and both are 1-3 in the NFC (ESPN, nflverse). Dallas has had 8 days since its last game and Philadelphia 9. The forecast is 58°F and clear with a 5 mph wind (Open-Meteo, WIS 0/7).

7.5
Spread swing, pts
5.0
Total drop, pts
-0.6
Prescott EPA, last 3
4
PHI straight losses
Source: ESPN (DraftKings, leaders, records, injuries), NBC Philadelphia, nflverse, The Odds API (nine books), Open-Meteo · 📺 ESPN / ABC
Pre-Snap
NBA · DAL @ MIA, IND @ MIL, GS @ DEN · 7:30, 8:00 and 10:00 PM ET / 4:30, 5:00 and 7:00 PM PT · 📺 NBA TV, NBA League Pass, NBCSN
Three winless teams are on the board, all 0-3: Miami, Milwaukee and Golden State (ESPN). The books treat them differently: Miami is an 8.6-point home favorite, Milwaukee a 4.5-point home underdog and Golden State a 7.5-point road underdog at Denver (The Odds API).
NBA · MEM @ UTAH · 9:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM PT · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT · 📺 NBA League Pass
The 3-0 Grizzlies are the road team and the books cannot agree who is favored: Memphis runs from -110 to +100 and Utah from -122 to -110 (The Odds API). Utah is 1-2.
NBA · PHX @ OKC · 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · 📺 NBA League Pass
The 220.7 average total is the lowest on the NBA board, against 240.4 for Indiana-Milwaukee. Oklahoma City is 3-0 and a 9.6-point favorite (The Odds API, ESPN).
NBA · WSH @ CHA · 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT · Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC · 📺 NBA League Pass
Washington averages 118.0 points a game and Charlotte 102.0, each through three games and each 2-1 (ESPN). The total is 228.6 (The Odds API). Small sample, big gap.
NHL · LA @ NYR · 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT · Madison Square Garden, New York, NY · 📺 NHL Network
Rangers goalie Dylan Garand has a .935 save percentage in three home starts and .876 in five on the road (NHL API). Los Angeles is 2-5-2, New York 7-5-1 (ESPN).
Also on the board — NBA: MIN@CLE 7:00 ET/4:00 PT · 📺 NBA League Pass · CHI@BOS 7:30 ET/4:30 PT · 📺 NBA League Pass · ATL@HOU 8:30 ET/5:30 PT · 📺 NBA League Pass. NHL: TOR@CGY 8:30 ET/5:30 PT · 📺 ESPN+.
College football and college basketball are dark.
Weather Watch
No weather flags: Tropicana Field is a dome and Rogers Place is indoors. Philadelphia is 58°F and clear with a 5 mph wind at kickoff (Open-Meteo, WIS 0/7), well under the 15 mph football threshold for kicking and deep passing.
Two-Minute Drill

Three questions. Answers at the bottom.

  1. The first Monday Night Football game was played on Sept. 21, 1970. Which two teams played it?
    The Cleveland Browns beat the New York Jets 31-21 (NFL.com, ESPN).
  2. Rogers Place opened in 2016. Which team did the Oilers beat in the first regular-season game there, and by what score?
    The Calgary Flames, 7-4, on Oct. 12, 2016 (AP).
  3. Milwaukee leads the World Series 2-0. Which Brewers outfielder homered in Game 2?
    Sal Frelick (MLB Stats API).

3/3 = you're the sharp friend. 0/3 = you're reading the right newsletter.