Every team that has led a World Series 3-0 has gone on to win it, according to CBS Los Angeles' count through 2024. Milwaukee has won 3-2, 5-4 and 10-1, outscoring Tampa Bay 18-7, and has hit .327 to the Rays' .187 (MLB Stats API). A Brewers win tonight ends the Series.
The market has not treated the lead as settled. DraftKings, via ESPN, closed Milwaukee at -186 in Game 1 and -116 in Game 2, then Tampa Bay at -112 in Game 3, which Milwaukee won 10-1. Tonight Milwaukee is -125 and Tampa Bay +104; the Rays opened at -109. The total is 7, up from 6.5 in the first two games, and the games have totaled 5, 9 and 11 runs. Nine books have Milwaukee between -118 and -127 (The Odds API).
MLB's schedule feed lists Griffin Jax for Tampa Bay and no starter yet for Milwaukee. Jax made 23 regular-season starts, 112⅓ innings and a 3.53 ERA, about 4.9 innings a start; his xERA is 4.27 (MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant). In October he has thrown 6 innings and allowed 4 earned runs.
Tampa Bay has two errors in the Series and Milwaukee one, and Cole Sulser threw 32 pitches Monday while Cam Booser, Steven Matz and Tyler Wells each pitched in both Games 2 and 3 (MLB Stats API). Those are workload counts, not availability reports. Tropicana Field is a dome, so weather is not a factor.
Milwaukee is 35-for-107 in the Series, a .327 average, to Tampa Bay's 17-for-91, .187, with 24 strikeouts, and the Brewers have drawn 12 walks (MLB Stats API). Chourio is 8-for-14 with four runs scored; William Contreras is 7-for-13. Jonathan Aranda is 4-for-9 for the Rays, and Liam Hicks has driven in four of Tampa Bay's seven RBI.
Chourio's regular season supports some of it, not all. His .361 wOBA sits above a .344 xwOBA, a 12.3% barrel rate and a 47.0% hard-hit rate say the contact is real, and he is +7 in Outs Above Average in left field, so the bat and the glove are the same player (Baseball Savant).
The scoreboard has run ahead of the totals. The games have produced 5, 9 and 11 runs, an average of 8.3, against posted totals of 6.5, 6.5 and 7. Tonight's total is 7 (DraftKings via ESPN).
Los Angeles beat the Rangers 6-3 on Monday and is on the second night of back-to-back games; Chicago last played Sunday, a 3-2 home loss to Florida, and has had a day (ESPN). The Kings placed right wing Mats Zuccarello on injured reserve on Monday (ESPN transactions).
Neither record is flattering. Los Angeles is 3-5-2, Chicago 3-8-0. The Kings are 3-2-2 away and 0-3 at home; the Blackhawks are 3-4 at home and 0-4 on the road (ESPN).
DraftKings, via ESPN, has Los Angeles -122 and Chicago +102, after an open of -118 and -102, on a total of 5.5. Across nine books Chicago's moneyline runs from -104 to +104, so the books do not agree on who the favorite is (The Odds API). A back-to-back is a scheduling fact, not a prediction about how a team will play.
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